Republican incumbent Michael Guest holds a commanding lead in the Mississippi 3rd congressional district race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. The district's strong Republican partisan voting index, consistent electoral history, and lack of competitive primary opposition for Guest contribute to this positioning, as Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio faces structural barriers in a solidly red area rated by forecasters as a safe Republican seat ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts. Potential shifts could stem from late-breaking scandals, health developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Jackson areas, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$33,907 交易量
$33,907 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
$33,907 交易量
$33,907 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$8,585 交易量
94%
民主党
$25,323 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Michael Guest holds a commanding lead in the Mississippi 3rd congressional district race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. The district's strong Republican partisan voting index, consistent electoral history, and lack of competitive primary opposition for Guest contribute to this positioning, as Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio faces structural barriers in a solidly red area rated by forecasters as a safe Republican seat ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts. Potential shifts could stem from late-breaking scandals, health developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Jackson areas, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$33,907结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Michael Guest holds a commanding lead in the Mississippi 3rd congressional district race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. The district's strong Republican partisan voting index, consistent electoral history, and lack of competitive primary opposition for Guest contribute to this positioning, as Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio faces structural barriers in a solidly red area rated by forecasters as a safe Republican seat ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts. Potential shifts could stem from late-breaking scandals, health developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Jackson areas, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,907结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Michael Guest holds a commanding lead in the Mississippi 3rd congressional district race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. The district's strong Republican partisan voting index, consistent electoral history, and lack of competitive primary opposition for Guest contribute to this positioning, as Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio faces structural barriers in a solidly red area rated by forecasters as a safe Republican seat ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts. Potential shifts could stem from late-breaking scandals, health developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Jackson areas, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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