Michigan's 11th congressional district, centered in Oakland County suburbs including Royal Oak and Pontiac, maintains a consistent Democratic lean reflected in its D+9 partisan voting index and the 58% margin secured by retiring incumbent Haley Stevens in 2024. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.7% implied probability ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election because the seat's voting patterns, candidate recruitment, and fundraising edges have historically insulated it from national swings. A Republican nominee such as Troy Mayor Ethan Baker faces structural barriers in a district that has favored Democrats by double digits in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unusually weak Democratic primary winner, a major scandal, or a sustained national Republican wave capable of shifting suburban turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$56,329 交易量
$56,329 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
1%
$56,329 交易量
$56,329 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$44,047 交易量
96%
共和党
$12,283 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan's 11th congressional district, centered in Oakland County suburbs including Royal Oak and Pontiac, maintains a consistent Democratic lean reflected in its D+9 partisan voting index and the 58% margin secured by retiring incumbent Haley Stevens in 2024. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.7% implied probability ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election because the seat's voting patterns, candidate recruitment, and fundraising edges have historically insulated it from national swings. A Republican nominee such as Troy Mayor Ethan Baker faces structural barriers in a district that has favored Democrats by double digits in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unusually weak Democratic primary winner, a major scandal, or a sustained national Republican wave capable of shifting suburban turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$56,329结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Michigan's 11th congressional district, centered in Oakland County suburbs including Royal Oak and Pontiac, maintains a consistent Democratic lean reflected in its D+9 partisan voting index and the 58% margin secured by retiring incumbent Haley Stevens in 2024. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.7% implied probability ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election because the seat's voting patterns, candidate recruitment, and fundraising edges have historically insulated it from national swings. A Republican nominee such as Troy Mayor Ethan Baker faces structural barriers in a district that has favored Democrats by double digits in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unusually weak Democratic primary winner, a major scandal, or a sustained national Republican wave capable of shifting suburban turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$56,329结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan's 11th congressional district, centered in Oakland County suburbs including Royal Oak and Pontiac, maintains a consistent Democratic lean reflected in its D+9 partisan voting index and the 58% margin secured by retiring incumbent Haley Stevens in 2024. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.7% implied probability ahead of the August 4 primary and November 3 general election because the seat's voting patterns, candidate recruitment, and fundraising edges have historically insulated it from national swings. A Republican nominee such as Troy Mayor Ethan Baker faces structural barriers in a district that has favored Democrats by double digits in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unusually weak Democratic primary winner, a major scandal, or a sustained national Republican wave capable of shifting suburban turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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