Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following court-ordered redistricting and the 2024 presidential results, which showed substantial GOP margins in the relevant areas. Incumbent Burgess Owens declined to seek re-election, clearing the path for Republican Mike Kennedy to secure the nomination with minimal primary opposition. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces structural challenges in a district encompassing western Utah counties and suburban portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican reflects these baseline partisan dynamics and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring a Democratic upset. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually adverse national environment for Republicans, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$32,784 交易量
$32,784 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
$32,784 交易量
$32,784 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$15,332 交易量
94%
民主党
$17,452 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following court-ordered redistricting and the 2024 presidential results, which showed substantial GOP margins in the relevant areas. Incumbent Burgess Owens declined to seek re-election, clearing the path for Republican Mike Kennedy to secure the nomination with minimal primary opposition. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces structural challenges in a district encompassing western Utah counties and suburban portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican reflects these baseline partisan dynamics and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring a Democratic upset. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually adverse national environment for Republicans, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$32,784结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following court-ordered redistricting and the 2024 presidential results, which showed substantial GOP margins in the relevant areas. Incumbent Burgess Owens declined to seek re-election, clearing the path for Republican Mike Kennedy to secure the nomination with minimal primary opposition. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces structural challenges in a district encompassing western Utah counties and suburban portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican reflects these baseline partisan dynamics and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring a Democratic upset. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually adverse national environment for Republicans, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,784结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following court-ordered redistricting and the 2024 presidential results, which showed substantial GOP margins in the relevant areas. Incumbent Burgess Owens declined to seek re-election, clearing the path for Republican Mike Kennedy to secure the nomination with minimal primary opposition. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces structural challenges in a district encompassing western Utah counties and suburban portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican reflects these baseline partisan dynamics and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring a Democratic upset. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually adverse national environment for Republicans, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题