The Texas 4th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles including Donald Trump's 2024 performance, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary and benefits from the district's composition across eastern Texas counties and select suburban areas, which structurally favors Republican turnout and voter registration advantages. With the general election still months away on November 3, 2026, limited Democratic recruitment or funding has not altered the positioning. A major scandal, health event affecting Fallon, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,882 交易量
$23,882 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
$23,882 交易量
$23,882 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$10,409 交易量
92%
民主党
$13,473 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Texas 4th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles including Donald Trump's 2024 performance, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary and benefits from the district's composition across eastern Texas counties and select suburban areas, which structurally favors Republican turnout and voter registration advantages. With the general election still months away on November 3, 2026, limited Democratic recruitment or funding has not altered the positioning. A major scandal, health event affecting Fallon, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$23,882结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Texas 4th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles including Donald Trump's 2024 performance, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary and benefits from the district's composition across eastern Texas counties and select suburban areas, which structurally favors Republican turnout and voter registration advantages. With the general election still months away on November 3, 2026, limited Democratic recruitment or funding has not altered the positioning. A major scandal, health event affecting Fallon, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,882结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Texas 4th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles including Donald Trump's 2024 performance, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary and benefits from the district's composition across eastern Texas counties and select suburban areas, which structurally favors Republican turnout and voter registration advantages. With the general election still months away on November 3, 2026, limited Democratic recruitment or funding has not altered the positioning. A major scandal, health event affecting Fallon, or an unprecedented national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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