The heavily Republican tilt of Arkansas's 4th district, rated R+20 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index and encompassing rural southern and western areas of the state, underpins the strong market consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Bruce Westerman secured renomination without primary opposition after winning 72.9% in 2024, while Democrat James Russell emerged from a low-profile primary to face him in the November general election. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent historical margins exceeding 25 points and limited Democratic infrastructure in the district. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Democratic wave, a significant late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such shifts remain improbable given the district's partisan baseline and Westerman's established position.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,161 交易量
$23,161 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
95%
民主党
6%
$23,161 交易量
$23,161 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$12,331 交易量
95%
民主党
$10,830 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Republican tilt of Arkansas's 4th district, rated R+20 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index and encompassing rural southern and western areas of the state, underpins the strong market consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Bruce Westerman secured renomination without primary opposition after winning 72.9% in 2024, while Democrat James Russell emerged from a low-profile primary to face him in the November general election. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent historical margins exceeding 25 points and limited Democratic infrastructure in the district. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Democratic wave, a significant late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such shifts remain improbable given the district's partisan baseline and Westerman's established position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$23,161结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Republican tilt of Arkansas's 4th district, rated R+20 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index and encompassing rural southern and western areas of the state, underpins the strong market consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Bruce Westerman secured renomination without primary opposition after winning 72.9% in 2024, while Democrat James Russell emerged from a low-profile primary to face him in the November general election. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent historical margins exceeding 25 points and limited Democratic infrastructure in the district. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Democratic wave, a significant late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such shifts remain improbable given the district's partisan baseline and Westerman's established position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,161结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Republican tilt of Arkansas's 4th district, rated R+20 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index and encompassing rural southern and western areas of the state, underpins the strong market consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Bruce Westerman secured renomination without primary opposition after winning 72.9% in 2024, while Democrat James Russell emerged from a low-profile primary to face him in the November general election. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent historical margins exceeding 25 points and limited Democratic infrastructure in the district. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Democratic wave, a significant late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such shifts remain improbable given the district's partisan baseline and Westerman's established position.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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