Redistricting efforts by Louisiana's Republican-controlled legislature represent the dominant factor shaping trader consensus around a Republican victory in the state's 6th congressional district. Proposed maps advanced in May 2026 aim to eliminate or alter one of the state's majority-Black districts, potentially shifting boundaries around Baton Rouge and other areas in ways that increase the district's partisan voting index in favor of Republicans. Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields, who won the seat in 2024, faces multiple Republican challengers who have already qualified, with the open primary scheduled for November 3 and a possible December runoff. These structural changes, combined with historical patterns of Republican performance in similar redrawn seats, underpin the elevated implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$59,546 交易量
$59,546 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
86%
民主党
10%
$59,546 交易量
$59,546 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$31,768 交易量
86%
民主党
$27,778 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting efforts by Louisiana's Republican-controlled legislature represent the dominant factor shaping trader consensus around a Republican victory in the state's 6th congressional district. Proposed maps advanced in May 2026 aim to eliminate or alter one of the state's majority-Black districts, potentially shifting boundaries around Baton Rouge and other areas in ways that increase the district's partisan voting index in favor of Republicans. Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields, who won the seat in 2024, faces multiple Republican challengers who have already qualified, with the open primary scheduled for November 3 and a possible December runoff. These structural changes, combined with historical patterns of Republican performance in similar redrawn seats, underpin the elevated implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$59,546结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting efforts by Louisiana's Republican-controlled legislature represent the dominant factor shaping trader consensus around a Republican victory in the state's 6th congressional district. Proposed maps advanced in May 2026 aim to eliminate or alter one of the state's majority-Black districts, potentially shifting boundaries around Baton Rouge and other areas in ways that increase the district's partisan voting index in favor of Republicans. Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields, who won the seat in 2024, faces multiple Republican challengers who have already qualified, with the open primary scheduled for November 3 and a possible December runoff. These structural changes, combined with historical patterns of Republican performance in similar redrawn seats, underpin the elevated implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$59,546结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting efforts by Louisiana's Republican-controlled legislature represent the dominant factor shaping trader consensus around a Republican victory in the state's 6th congressional district. Proposed maps advanced in May 2026 aim to eliminate or alter one of the state's majority-Black districts, potentially shifting boundaries around Baton Rouge and other areas in ways that increase the district's partisan voting index in favor of Republicans. Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields, who won the seat in 2024, faces multiple Republican challengers who have already qualified, with the open primary scheduled for November 3 and a possible December runoff. These structural changes, combined with historical patterns of Republican performance in similar redrawn seats, underpin the elevated implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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