Recent Supreme Court rulings invalidating Louisiana's majority-Black congressional map have reshaped LA-06 dynamics ahead of the November 2026 primary and December runoff, shifting the district toward Republican-leaning performance metrics. Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields, elected under the prior boundaries, faces multiple Republican challengers in the nonpartisan primary, with forecasters rating the seat a likely flip. Redistricting pressures from the Louisiana v. Callais decision, combined with the state's partisan voting index and historical turnout patterns in Baton Rouge, Shreveport, and Lafayette areas, underpin the trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome at 84.5% implied probability. Key upcoming milestones include candidate filing deadlines and primary results that could further clarify the path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$59,546 交易量
$59,546 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
85%
民主党
9%
$59,546 交易量
$59,546 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$31,768 交易量
85%
民主党
$27,778 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent Supreme Court rulings invalidating Louisiana's majority-Black congressional map have reshaped LA-06 dynamics ahead of the November 2026 primary and December runoff, shifting the district toward Republican-leaning performance metrics. Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields, elected under the prior boundaries, faces multiple Republican challengers in the nonpartisan primary, with forecasters rating the seat a likely flip. Redistricting pressures from the Louisiana v. Callais decision, combined with the state's partisan voting index and historical turnout patterns in Baton Rouge, Shreveport, and Lafayette areas, underpin the trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome at 84.5% implied probability. Key upcoming milestones include candidate filing deadlines and primary results that could further clarify the path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$59,546结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent Supreme Court rulings invalidating Louisiana's majority-Black congressional map have reshaped LA-06 dynamics ahead of the November 2026 primary and December runoff, shifting the district toward Republican-leaning performance metrics. Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields, elected under the prior boundaries, faces multiple Republican challengers in the nonpartisan primary, with forecasters rating the seat a likely flip. Redistricting pressures from the Louisiana v. Callais decision, combined with the state's partisan voting index and historical turnout patterns in Baton Rouge, Shreveport, and Lafayette areas, underpin the trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome at 84.5% implied probability. Key upcoming milestones include candidate filing deadlines and primary results that could further clarify the path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$59,546结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Supreme Court rulings invalidating Louisiana's majority-Black congressional map have reshaped LA-06 dynamics ahead of the November 2026 primary and December runoff, shifting the district toward Republican-leaning performance metrics. Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields, elected under the prior boundaries, faces multiple Republican challengers in the nonpartisan primary, with forecasters rating the seat a likely flip. Redistricting pressures from the Louisiana v. Callais decision, combined with the state's partisan voting index and historical turnout patterns in Baton Rouge, Shreveport, and Lafayette areas, underpin the trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome at 84.5% implied probability. Key upcoming milestones include candidate filing deadlines and primary results that could further clarify the path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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