The strong Republican lean of Louisiana's 4th congressional district, anchored in the Shreveport-Bossier City area, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 94%. Incumbent Mike Johnson, the House Speaker, faces only minor primary opposition from other Republicans and Democrats including farmer Conrad Cable ahead of the November 3, 2026 jungle primary. Johnson's prior 85%+ margins, combined with the district's consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, limit any realistic path for Democratic advancement to a potential December runoff. Low-profile challengers and the absence of major scandals or redistricting shifts reinforce this positioning, though a significant national political realignment or unexpected primary surge could theoretically alter the outcome before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,188 交易量
$11,188 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
94%
民主党
5%
$11,188 交易量
$11,188 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$3,666 交易量
94%
民主党
$7,522 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Louisiana's 4th congressional district, anchored in the Shreveport-Bossier City area, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 94%. Incumbent Mike Johnson, the House Speaker, faces only minor primary opposition from other Republicans and Democrats including farmer Conrad Cable ahead of the November 3, 2026 jungle primary. Johnson's prior 85%+ margins, combined with the district's consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, limit any realistic path for Democratic advancement to a potential December runoff. Low-profile challengers and the absence of major scandals or redistricting shifts reinforce this positioning, though a significant national political realignment or unexpected primary surge could theoretically alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$11,188结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Louisiana's 4th congressional district, anchored in the Shreveport-Bossier City area, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 94%. Incumbent Mike Johnson, the House Speaker, faces only minor primary opposition from other Republicans and Democrats including farmer Conrad Cable ahead of the November 3, 2026 jungle primary. Johnson's prior 85%+ margins, combined with the district's consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, limit any realistic path for Democratic advancement to a potential December runoff. Low-profile challengers and the absence of major scandals or redistricting shifts reinforce this positioning, though a significant national political realignment or unexpected primary surge could theoretically alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,188结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican lean of Louisiana's 4th congressional district, anchored in the Shreveport-Bossier City area, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 94%. Incumbent Mike Johnson, the House Speaker, faces only minor primary opposition from other Republicans and Democrats including farmer Conrad Cable ahead of the November 3, 2026 jungle primary. Johnson's prior 85%+ margins, combined with the district's consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, limit any realistic path for Democratic advancement to a potential December runoff. Low-profile challengers and the absence of major scandals or redistricting shifts reinforce this positioning, though a significant national political realignment or unexpected primary surge could theoretically alter the outcome before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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