South Dakota’s at-large congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent federal contests. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote, creating a unified party ticket against Democrat Nicole Gronli and independent Jack Pittman. Traders’ 93.5 percent consensus on a Republican win draws from this primary consolidation, the state’s partisan registration edge, and limited Democratic organizational presence. A meaningful shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the GOP nominee, a sharp national Democratic surge that narrows typical margins, or unusually depressed Republican turnout in November. Forecasters continue to rate the seat solid or safe Republican.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$16,973 交易量
$16,973 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
9%
$16,973 交易量
$16,973 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$9,494 交易量
94%
民主党
$7,479 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent federal contests. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote, creating a unified party ticket against Democrat Nicole Gronli and independent Jack Pittman. Traders’ 93.5 percent consensus on a Republican win draws from this primary consolidation, the state’s partisan registration edge, and limited Democratic organizational presence. A meaningful shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the GOP nominee, a sharp national Democratic surge that narrows typical margins, or unusually depressed Republican turnout in November. Forecasters continue to rate the seat solid or safe Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$16,973结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent federal contests. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote, creating a unified party ticket against Democrat Nicole Gronli and independent Jack Pittman. Traders’ 93.5 percent consensus on a Republican win draws from this primary consolidation, the state’s partisan registration edge, and limited Democratic organizational presence. A meaningful shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the GOP nominee, a sharp national Democratic surge that narrows typical margins, or unusually depressed Republican turnout in November. Forecasters continue to rate the seat solid or safe Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$16,973结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota’s at-large congressional district carries a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent federal contests. Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination in the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote, creating a unified party ticket against Democrat Nicole Gronli and independent Jack Pittman. Traders’ 93.5 percent consensus on a Republican win draws from this primary consolidation, the state’s partisan registration edge, and limited Democratic organizational presence. A meaningful shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the GOP nominee, a sharp national Democratic surge that narrows typical margins, or unusually depressed Republican turnout in November. Forecasters continue to rate the seat solid or safe Republican.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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