North Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains structurally Republican, with a Cook PVI near R+20 and no Democratic statewide win since 2012. Incumbent Julie Fedorchak secured renomination on June 9 by defeating challenger Alex Balazs, setting up a November rematch against Democrat Trygve Hammer. The state’s rural electorate, energy-sector alignment, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent House races underpin the 93.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s entrenched partisan lean before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$39,938 交易量
$39,938 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
$39,938 交易量
$39,938 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$23,604 交易量
94%
民主党
$16,334 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).North Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains structurally Republican, with a Cook PVI near R+20 and no Democratic statewide win since 2012. Incumbent Julie Fedorchak secured renomination on June 9 by defeating challenger Alex Balazs, setting up a November rematch against Democrat Trygve Hammer. The state’s rural electorate, energy-sector alignment, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent House races underpin the 93.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s entrenched partisan lean before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$39,938结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).North Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains structurally Republican, with a Cook PVI near R+20 and no Democratic statewide win since 2012. Incumbent Julie Fedorchak secured renomination on June 9 by defeating challenger Alex Balazs, setting up a November rematch against Democrat Trygve Hammer. The state’s rural electorate, energy-sector alignment, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent House races underpin the 93.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s entrenched partisan lean before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$39,938结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...North Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains structurally Republican, with a Cook PVI near R+20 and no Democratic statewide win since 2012. Incumbent Julie Fedorchak secured renomination on June 9 by defeating challenger Alex Balazs, setting up a November rematch against Democrat Trygve Hammer. The state’s rural electorate, energy-sector alignment, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent House races underpin the 93.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s entrenched partisan lean before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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