Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the August 2026 top-two primary, where Amanda McKinney advanced as the Republican nominee against Democrat John Duresky. The district’s conservative tilt, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin in 2024, combined with the retirement of longtime incumbent Dan Newhouse, has produced broad forecaster consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Limited polling and structural factors such as voter registration and past turnout patterns underpin trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican outcome. A major scandal, significant national political realignment, or unusually elevated Democratic mobilization could narrow the gap, though current indicators show limited evidence those shifts are underway.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$45,194 交易量
$45,194 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
91%
民主党
8%
$45,194 交易量
$45,194 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$24,210 交易量
91%
民主党
$20,984 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the August 2026 top-two primary, where Amanda McKinney advanced as the Republican nominee against Democrat John Duresky. The district’s conservative tilt, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin in 2024, combined with the retirement of longtime incumbent Dan Newhouse, has produced broad forecaster consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Limited polling and structural factors such as voter registration and past turnout patterns underpin trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican outcome. A major scandal, significant national political realignment, or unusually elevated Democratic mobilization could narrow the gap, though current indicators show limited evidence those shifts are underway.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$45,194结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the August 2026 top-two primary, where Amanda McKinney advanced as the Republican nominee against Democrat John Duresky. The district’s conservative tilt, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin in 2024, combined with the retirement of longtime incumbent Dan Newhouse, has produced broad forecaster consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Limited polling and structural factors such as voter registration and past turnout patterns underpin trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican outcome. A major scandal, significant national political realignment, or unusually elevated Democratic mobilization could narrow the gap, though current indicators show limited evidence those shifts are underway.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$45,194结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the August 2026 top-two primary, where Amanda McKinney advanced as the Republican nominee against Democrat John Duresky. The district’s conservative tilt, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin in 2024, combined with the retirement of longtime incumbent Dan Newhouse, has produced broad forecaster consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Limited polling and structural factors such as voter registration and past turnout patterns underpin trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican outcome. A major scandal, significant national political realignment, or unusually elevated Democratic mobilization could narrow the gap, though current indicators show limited evidence those shifts are underway.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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