Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican David Pan in California's 46th congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its partisan voting index and Correa's prior general election margins. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading Republicans by wide margins among likely voters, consistent with the district's composition in Orange County areas. This positioning underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national political shift, an unexpected scandal or health issue affecting the frontrunner, or unusually high Republican turnout in the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,259 交易量
$11,259 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
$11,259 交易量
$11,259 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$2,449 交易量
93%
共和党
$8,811 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican David Pan in California's 46th congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its partisan voting index and Correa's prior general election margins. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading Republicans by wide margins among likely voters, consistent with the district's composition in Orange County areas. This positioning underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national political shift, an unexpected scandal or health issue affecting the frontrunner, or unusually high Republican turnout in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$11,259结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican David Pan in California's 46th congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its partisan voting index and Correa's prior general election margins. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading Republicans by wide margins among likely voters, consistent with the district's composition in Orange County areas. This positioning underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national political shift, an unexpected scandal or health issue affecting the frontrunner, or unusually high Republican turnout in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,259结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican David Pan in California's 46th congressional district, a seat with a strong Democratic lean reflected in its partisan voting index and Correa's prior general election margins. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading Republicans by wide margins among likely voters, consistent with the district's composition in Orange County areas. This positioning underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national political shift, an unexpected scandal or health issue affecting the frontrunner, or unusually high Republican turnout in the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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