Democratic incumbent Dave Min advanced from the June 2 top-two primary in California’s 47th congressional district to face Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux in the November general election. Redistricting shifted the Orange County-based seat—including Irvine, Laguna Beach, and surrounding areas—toward a stronger Democratic lean, reflected in the district’s Cook Partisan Voter Index and 2024 presidential results favoring the Democratic nominee by double digits. Min’s primary performance, exceeding 42 percent while the leading Republican trailed below 27 percent, underscores the structural advantages of incumbency and party registration in a district rated Likely Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these fundamentals. Low-probability shifts could stem from an unforeseen national political realignment, candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in a midterm environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$1,706 交易量
94%
共和党
$6,700 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min advanced from the June 2 top-two primary in California’s 47th congressional district to face Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux in the November general election. Redistricting shifted the Orange County-based seat—including Irvine, Laguna Beach, and surrounding areas—toward a stronger Democratic lean, reflected in the district’s Cook Partisan Voter Index and 2024 presidential results favoring the Democratic nominee by double digits. Min’s primary performance, exceeding 42 percent while the leading Republican trailed below 27 percent, underscores the structural advantages of incumbency and party registration in a district rated Likely Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these fundamentals. Low-probability shifts could stem from an unforeseen national political realignment, candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in a midterm environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$8,407结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min advanced from the June 2 top-two primary in California’s 47th congressional district to face Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux in the November general election. Redistricting shifted the Orange County-based seat—including Irvine, Laguna Beach, and surrounding areas—toward a stronger Democratic lean, reflected in the district’s Cook Partisan Voter Index and 2024 presidential results favoring the Democratic nominee by double digits. Min’s primary performance, exceeding 42 percent while the leading Republican trailed below 27 percent, underscores the structural advantages of incumbency and party registration in a district rated Likely Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these fundamentals. Low-probability shifts could stem from an unforeseen national political realignment, candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in a midterm environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,407结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Dave Min advanced from the June 2 top-two primary in California’s 47th congressional district to face Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux in the November general election. Redistricting shifted the Orange County-based seat—including Irvine, Laguna Beach, and surrounding areas—toward a stronger Democratic lean, reflected in the district’s Cook Partisan Voter Index and 2024 presidential results favoring the Democratic nominee by double digits. Min’s primary performance, exceeding 42 percent while the leading Republican trailed below 27 percent, underscores the structural advantages of incumbency and party registration in a district rated Likely Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these fundamentals. Low-probability shifts could stem from an unforeseen national political realignment, candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout in a midterm environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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