The open seat in California's 48th congressional district, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, features a general election matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond following the June 2 primary. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego- and Riverside-area district from a stronger Republican tilt to a modest Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, consistent with the district's recent voting patterns and the structural edge held by the Democratic nominee in November. Trader consensus in the prediction market aligns with these fundamentals, as the general election outcome favors the Democratic candidate absent major shifts in turnout or campaign dynamics before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$12,652 交易量
$12,652 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
85%
共和党
15%
$12,652 交易量
$12,652 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,389 交易量
85%
共和党
$6,262 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in California's 48th congressional district, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, features a general election matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond following the June 2 primary. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego- and Riverside-area district from a stronger Republican tilt to a modest Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, consistent with the district's recent voting patterns and the structural edge held by the Democratic nominee in November. Trader consensus in the prediction market aligns with these fundamentals, as the general election outcome favors the Democratic candidate absent major shifts in turnout or campaign dynamics before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$12,652结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in California's 48th congressional district, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, features a general election matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond following the June 2 primary. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego- and Riverside-area district from a stronger Republican tilt to a modest Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, consistent with the district's recent voting patterns and the structural edge held by the Democratic nominee in November. Trader consensus in the prediction market aligns with these fundamentals, as the general election outcome favors the Democratic candidate absent major shifts in turnout or campaign dynamics before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,652结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in California's 48th congressional district, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, features a general election matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond following the June 2 primary. Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the San Diego- and Riverside-area district from a stronger Republican tilt to a modest Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, consistent with the district's recent voting patterns and the structural edge held by the Democratic nominee in November. Trader consensus in the prediction market aligns with these fundamentals, as the general election outcome favors the Democratic candidate absent major shifts in turnout or campaign dynamics before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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