California's 48th congressional district shifted toward Democrats following redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a lean Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+2. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired ahead of the 2026 midterms, opening the race. In the June 2 primary, Republican Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni von Wilpert advanced to the general election on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Lean or Tilt Democratic. These structural factors and the absence of a Republican incumbent drive trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome while leaving room for shifts based on campaign dynamics or turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$12,641 交易量
$12,641 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
86%
共和党
16%
$12,641 交易量
$12,641 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,385 交易量
86%
共和党
$6,256 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 48th congressional district shifted toward Democrats following redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a lean Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+2. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired ahead of the 2026 midterms, opening the race. In the June 2 primary, Republican Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni von Wilpert advanced to the general election on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Lean or Tilt Democratic. These structural factors and the absence of a Republican incumbent drive trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome while leaving room for shifts based on campaign dynamics or turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$12,641结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 48th congressional district shifted toward Democrats following redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a lean Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+2. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired ahead of the 2026 midterms, opening the race. In the June 2 primary, Republican Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni von Wilpert advanced to the general election on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Lean or Tilt Democratic. These structural factors and the absence of a Republican incumbent drive trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome while leaving room for shifts based on campaign dynamics or turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,641结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 48th congressional district shifted toward Democrats following redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a lean Democratic seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+2. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa retired ahead of the 2026 midterms, opening the race. In the June 2 primary, Republican Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni von Wilpert advanced to the general election on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Lean or Tilt Democratic. These structural factors and the absence of a Republican incumbent drive trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome while leaving room for shifts based on campaign dynamics or turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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