Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district following his 2024 victory by fewer than 700 votes and a comfortable advance through the June 2026 top-two primary. New legislative redistricting approved in 2025 shifted the seat several points toward Democrats, aligning with voter registration that favors the party by wide margins in the Orange County and Los Angeles areas. Independent race ratings classify the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting the incumbent's early fundraising edge and the structural barriers facing Republican challengers in the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party an 87.5% implied probability, consistent with these district fundamentals and the absence of major recent disruptions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
88%
共和党
11%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$1,726 交易量
88%
共和党
$6,331 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district following his 2024 victory by fewer than 700 votes and a comfortable advance through the June 2026 top-two primary. New legislative redistricting approved in 2025 shifted the seat several points toward Democrats, aligning with voter registration that favors the party by wide margins in the Orange County and Los Angeles areas. Independent race ratings classify the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting the incumbent's early fundraising edge and the structural barriers facing Republican challengers in the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party an 87.5% implied probability, consistent with these district fundamentals and the absence of major recent disruptions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$8,056结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district following his 2024 victory by fewer than 700 votes and a comfortable advance through the June 2026 top-two primary. New legislative redistricting approved in 2025 shifted the seat several points toward Democrats, aligning with voter registration that favors the party by wide margins in the Orange County and Los Angeles areas. Independent race ratings classify the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting the incumbent's early fundraising edge and the structural barriers facing Republican challengers in the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party an 87.5% implied probability, consistent with these district fundamentals and the absence of major recent disruptions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,056结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district following his 2024 victory by fewer than 700 votes and a comfortable advance through the June 2026 top-two primary. New legislative redistricting approved in 2025 shifted the seat several points toward Democrats, aligning with voter registration that favors the party by wide margins in the Orange County and Los Angeles areas. Independent race ratings classify the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting the incumbent's early fundraising edge and the structural barriers facing Republican challengers in the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party an 87.5% implied probability, consistent with these district fundamentals and the absence of major recent disruptions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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