Democratic incumbent Derek Tran’s strong performance in the June 2 primary, where he exceeded 50 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, has reinforced trader consensus around an 87.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the Orange County seat as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting its modest partisan lean and large Asian American electorate. No major developments in the past week have altered the positioning, with the general election matchup against the leading Republican challenger still months away and subject to standard campaign dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
88%
共和党
11%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$1,726 交易量
88%
共和党
$6,331 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran’s strong performance in the June 2 primary, where he exceeded 50 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, has reinforced trader consensus around an 87.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the Orange County seat as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting its modest partisan lean and large Asian American electorate. No major developments in the past week have altered the positioning, with the general election matchup against the leading Republican challenger still months away and subject to standard campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$8,056结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran’s strong performance in the June 2 primary, where he exceeded 50 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, has reinforced trader consensus around an 87.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the Orange County seat as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting its modest partisan lean and large Asian American electorate. No major developments in the past week have altered the positioning, with the general election matchup against the leading Republican challenger still months away and subject to standard campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,056结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Derek Tran’s strong performance in the June 2 primary, where he exceeded 50 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, has reinforced trader consensus around an 87.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the Orange County seat as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting its modest partisan lean and large Asian American electorate. No major developments in the past week have altered the positioning, with the general election matchup against the leading Republican challenger still months away and subject to standard campaign dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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