Incumbent Democrat Nanette Barragán's strong performance in the June 2 primary, where she captured over 70 percent against a single Republican opponent, reinforces the district's longstanding partisan composition. California’s 44th carries one of the steepest Democratic leans in the state, with consistent margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles and limited Republican infrastructure. Traders have priced this structural advantage and incumbency into the 93.5 percent consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health crisis affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national wave that overcomes the district’s baseline voter registration and turnout patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,145 交易量
$23,145 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$23,145 交易量
$23,145 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,909 交易量
94%
共和党
$8,236 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Nanette Barragán's strong performance in the June 2 primary, where she captured over 70 percent against a single Republican opponent, reinforces the district's longstanding partisan composition. California’s 44th carries one of the steepest Democratic leans in the state, with consistent margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles and limited Republican infrastructure. Traders have priced this structural advantage and incumbency into the 93.5 percent consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health crisis affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national wave that overcomes the district’s baseline voter registration and turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
交易量
$23,145结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Nanette Barragán's strong performance in the June 2 primary, where she captured over 70 percent against a single Republican opponent, reinforces the district's longstanding partisan composition. California’s 44th carries one of the steepest Democratic leans in the state, with consistent margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles and limited Republican infrastructure. Traders have priced this structural advantage and incumbency into the 93.5 percent consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health crisis affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national wave that overcomes the district’s baseline voter registration and turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,145结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Nanette Barragán's strong performance in the June 2 primary, where she captured over 70 percent against a single Republican opponent, reinforces the district's longstanding partisan composition. California’s 44th carries one of the steepest Democratic leans in the state, with consistent margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles and limited Republican infrastructure. Traders have priced this structural advantage and incumbency into the 93.5 percent consensus for the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3 general election. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, health crisis affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national wave that overcomes the district’s baseline voter registration and turnout patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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