Herb Conaway's position as the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold, reflecting the seat's established partisan composition and his 2024 victory margin. Following the June 2026 primaries, where Conaway faced minimal opposition and Republican Michael McGuire secured his party's nomination, limited competitive developments have emerged to alter assessments. Factors such as voter registration patterns in Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, combined with historical turnout trends in this suburban-leaning area, reinforce the current implied probabilities. Potential shifts could arise from a significant national midterm wave, late-campaign developments affecting candidate viability, or unexpected turnout changes in key voting blocs before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$26,418 交易量
$26,418 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$26,418 交易量
$26,418 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$12,895 交易量
94%
共和党
$13,523 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Herb Conaway's position as the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold, reflecting the seat's established partisan composition and his 2024 victory margin. Following the June 2026 primaries, where Conaway faced minimal opposition and Republican Michael McGuire secured his party's nomination, limited competitive developments have emerged to alter assessments. Factors such as voter registration patterns in Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, combined with historical turnout trends in this suburban-leaning area, reinforce the current implied probabilities. Potential shifts could arise from a significant national midterm wave, late-campaign developments affecting candidate viability, or unexpected turnout changes in key voting blocs before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$26,418结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Herb Conaway's position as the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold, reflecting the seat's established partisan composition and his 2024 victory margin. Following the June 2026 primaries, where Conaway faced minimal opposition and Republican Michael McGuire secured his party's nomination, limited competitive developments have emerged to alter assessments. Factors such as voter registration patterns in Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, combined with historical turnout trends in this suburban-leaning area, reinforce the current implied probabilities. Potential shifts could arise from a significant national midterm wave, late-campaign developments affecting candidate viability, or unexpected turnout changes in key voting blocs before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$26,418结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Herb Conaway's position as the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold, reflecting the seat's established partisan composition and his 2024 victory margin. Following the June 2026 primaries, where Conaway faced minimal opposition and Republican Michael McGuire secured his party's nomination, limited competitive developments have emerged to alter assessments. Factors such as voter registration patterns in Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties, combined with historical turnout trends in this suburban-leaning area, reinforce the current implied probabilities. Potential shifts could arise from a significant national midterm wave, late-campaign developments affecting candidate viability, or unexpected turnout changes in key voting blocs before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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