**PA-03 is a heavily Democratic district centered in Philadelphia with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+40, making it one of the safest seats for the party in the country.** Incumbent Rep. Dwight Evans retired ahead of the 2026 cycle, opening the seat, but the Democratic primary on May 19 produced a clear nominee in state Rep. Christopher Rabb, who won with 44.6% of the vote against state Sen. Sharif Street and physician Ala Stanford. All major forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic. In the November 3 general election, Rabb faces only minor opposition from independent Dennis Mahoney, with no Republican candidate on the ballot. This structural mismatch, combined with the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and high primary turnout favoring the party nominee, drives the current trader consensus near 96.5% for Democrats. The 0.6% implied probability for Republicans reflects the absence of a viable challenger. Scenarios that could realistically shift odds remain narrow. A major scandal or health event involving the Democratic nominee, an unprecedented turnout collapse, or a late legal or ballot issue could theoretically open the race, though historical precedent in D+40 districts shows such reversals are rare. Absent those developments, the general election outcome is widely viewed as predetermined by the primary result and underlying partisan lean.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$30,993 交易量
$30,993 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
97%
共和党
1%
$30,993 交易量
$30,993 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$19,637 交易量
97%
共和党
$11,356 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**PA-03 is a heavily Democratic district centered in Philadelphia with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+40, making it one of the safest seats for the party in the country.** Incumbent Rep. Dwight Evans retired ahead of the 2026 cycle, opening the seat, but the Democratic primary on May 19 produced a clear nominee in state Rep. Christopher Rabb, who won with 44.6% of the vote against state Sen. Sharif Street and physician Ala Stanford. All major forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic.
In the November 3 general election, Rabb faces only minor opposition from independent Dennis Mahoney, with no Republican candidate on the ballot. This structural mismatch, combined with the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and high primary turnout favoring the party nominee, drives the current trader consensus near 96.5% for Democrats. The 0.6% implied probability for Republicans reflects the absence of a viable challenger.
Scenarios that could realistically shift odds remain narrow. A major scandal or health event involving the Democratic nominee, an unprecedented turnout collapse, or a late legal or ballot issue could theoretically open the race, though historical precedent in D+40 districts shows such reversals are rare. Absent those developments, the general election outcome is widely viewed as predetermined by the primary result and underlying partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$30,993结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**PA-03 is a heavily Democratic district centered in Philadelphia with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+40, making it one of the safest seats for the party in the country.** Incumbent Rep. Dwight Evans retired ahead of the 2026 cycle, opening the seat, but the Democratic primary on May 19 produced a clear nominee in state Rep. Christopher Rabb, who won with 44.6% of the vote against state Sen. Sharif Street and physician Ala Stanford. All major forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic.
In the November 3 general election, Rabb faces only minor opposition from independent Dennis Mahoney, with no Republican candidate on the ballot. This structural mismatch, combined with the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and high primary turnout favoring the party nominee, drives the current trader consensus near 96.5% for Democrats. The 0.6% implied probability for Republicans reflects the absence of a viable challenger.
Scenarios that could realistically shift odds remain narrow. A major scandal or health event involving the Democratic nominee, an unprecedented turnout collapse, or a late legal or ballot issue could theoretically open the race, though historical precedent in D+40 districts shows such reversals are rare. Absent those developments, the general election outcome is widely viewed as predetermined by the primary result and underlying partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$30,993结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**PA-03 is a heavily Democratic district centered in Philadelphia with a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+40, making it one of the safest seats for the party in the country.** Incumbent Rep. Dwight Evans retired ahead of the 2026 cycle, opening the seat, but the Democratic primary on May 19 produced a clear nominee in state Rep. Christopher Rabb, who won with 44.6% of the vote against state Sen. Sharif Street and physician Ala Stanford. All major forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic. In the November 3 general election, Rabb faces only minor opposition from independent Dennis Mahoney, with no Republican candidate on the ballot. This structural mismatch, combined with the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and high primary turnout favoring the party nominee, drives the current trader consensus near 96.5% for Democrats. The 0.6% implied probability for Republicans reflects the absence of a viable challenger. Scenarios that could realistically shift odds remain narrow. A major scandal or health event involving the Democratic nominee, an unprecedented turnout collapse, or a late legal or ballot issue could theoretically open the race, though historical precedent in D+40 districts shows such reversals are rare. Absent those developments, the general election outcome is widely viewed as predetermined by the primary result and underlying partisan lean.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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