Democratic incumbent Sam Liccardo secured the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 73 percent of the vote in California's 16th congressional district, advancing to face Republican nominees in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in prior results and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the party, underpins the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome. Liccardo's established position and the limited Republican field contribute to this positioning, while structural factors such as voter registration patterns and historical margins limit near-term shifts. Late developments including candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unusually high opposition turnout remain the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability ahead of November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$76,668 交易量
$76,668 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$76,668 交易量
$76,668 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$49,124 交易量
93%
共和党
$27,544 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Sam Liccardo secured the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 73 percent of the vote in California's 16th congressional district, advancing to face Republican nominees in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in prior results and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the party, underpins the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome. Liccardo's established position and the limited Republican field contribute to this positioning, while structural factors such as voter registration patterns and historical margins limit near-term shifts. Late developments including candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unusually high opposition turnout remain the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$76,668结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Sam Liccardo secured the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 73 percent of the vote in California's 16th congressional district, advancing to face Republican nominees in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in prior results and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the party, underpins the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome. Liccardo's established position and the limited Republican field contribute to this positioning, while structural factors such as voter registration patterns and historical margins limit near-term shifts. Late developments including candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unusually high opposition turnout remain the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$76,668结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Sam Liccardo secured the June 2, 2026 primary with roughly 73 percent of the vote in California's 16th congressional district, advancing to face Republican nominees in the November 3 general election. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in prior results and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the party, underpins the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome. Liccardo's established position and the limited Republican field contribute to this positioning, while structural factors such as voter registration patterns and historical margins limit near-term shifts. Late developments including candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unusually high opposition turnout remain the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability ahead of November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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