Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from California's June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter and several Democratic challengers, setting up a general election matchup in a district rated D+26 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Nonpartisan analysts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Mullin's prior general election margins above 70 percent. The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, combined with Mullin's established incumbency and fundraising position, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican national wave could still alter the trajectory, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural partisan imbalance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$116,986 交易量
$116,986 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
4%
$116,986 交易量
$116,986 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$92,679 交易量
96%
共和党
$24,307 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from California's June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter and several Democratic challengers, setting up a general election matchup in a district rated D+26 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Nonpartisan analysts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Mullin's prior general election margins above 70 percent. The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, combined with Mullin's established incumbency and fundraising position, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican national wave could still alter the trajectory, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural partisan imbalance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$116,986结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from California's June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter and several Democratic challengers, setting up a general election matchup in a district rated D+26 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Nonpartisan analysts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Mullin's prior general election margins above 70 percent. The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, combined with Mullin's established incumbency and fundraising position, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican national wave could still alter the trajectory, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural partisan imbalance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$116,986结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from California's June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against Republican Charles Hoelter and several Democratic challengers, setting up a general election matchup in a district rated D+26 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Nonpartisan analysts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Mullin's prior general election margins above 70 percent. The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, combined with Mullin's established incumbency and fundraising position, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican national wave could still alter the trajectory, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural partisan imbalance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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