The CA-15 district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Kevin Mullin secured a clear primary victory on June 2 with roughly 61 percent of the vote against limited intra-party challengers and Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with prior election margins exceeding 45 points. The Republican candidate faces structural barriers in a Bay Area district with heavy Democratic registration and voting history. While an unforeseen national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could alter the outcome before the November general election, no such developments have emerged to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$116,586 交易量
$116,586 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
3%
$116,586 交易量
$116,586 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$92,679 交易量
96%
共和党
$23,908 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The CA-15 district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Kevin Mullin secured a clear primary victory on June 2 with roughly 61 percent of the vote against limited intra-party challengers and Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with prior election margins exceeding 45 points. The Republican candidate faces structural barriers in a Bay Area district with heavy Democratic registration and voting history. While an unforeseen national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could alter the outcome before the November general election, no such developments have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$116,586结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The CA-15 district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Kevin Mullin secured a clear primary victory on June 2 with roughly 61 percent of the vote against limited intra-party challengers and Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with prior election margins exceeding 45 points. The Republican candidate faces structural barriers in a Bay Area district with heavy Democratic registration and voting history. While an unforeseen national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could alter the outcome before the November general election, no such developments have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$116,586结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The CA-15 district's strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, anchors trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Kevin Mullin secured a clear primary victory on June 2 with roughly 61 percent of the vote against limited intra-party challengers and Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with prior election margins exceeding 45 points. The Republican candidate faces structural barriers in a Bay Area district with heavy Democratic registration and voting history. While an unforeseen national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or major scandal could alter the outcome before the November general election, no such developments have emerged to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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