Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin’s decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter to the November general election, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic hold in California’s 15th congressional district. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic due to its Bay Area location, strong Democratic voter registration edge, and consistent historical margins in similar coastal districts. This positioning aligns with the market’s 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political shift within the next five months remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$116,421 交易量
$116,421 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
4%
$116,421 交易量
$116,421 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$92,679 交易量
96%
共和党
$23,742 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin’s decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter to the November general election, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic hold in California’s 15th congressional district. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic due to its Bay Area location, strong Democratic voter registration edge, and consistent historical margins in similar coastal districts. This positioning aligns with the market’s 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political shift within the next five months remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$116,421结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin’s decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter to the November general election, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic hold in California’s 15th congressional district. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic due to its Bay Area location, strong Democratic voter registration edge, and consistent historical margins in similar coastal districts. This positioning aligns with the market’s 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political shift within the next five months remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$116,421结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin’s decisive primary victory on June 2, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter to the November general election, reinforces trader consensus on a Democratic hold in California’s 15th congressional district. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat solid or safe Democratic due to its Bay Area location, strong Democratic voter registration edge, and consistent historical margins in similar coastal districts. This positioning aligns with the market’s 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national political shift within the next five months remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the trajectory before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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