Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2, 2026, primary in California's 15th congressional district with roughly 61 percent of the vote, facing Republican Charles Hoelter in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index rating more than 25 points above the national average, has long favored Democratic candidates, as shown by Mullin's 73 percent win in 2024. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party incorporates this structural advantage along with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or polling shifts. Potential disruptions remain limited to late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unusual turnout patterns that have occasionally altered safe-seat outcomes in prior cycles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$116,421 交易量
$116,421 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
4%
$116,421 交易量
$116,421 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$92,679 交易量
96%
共和党
$23,742 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2, 2026, primary in California's 15th congressional district with roughly 61 percent of the vote, facing Republican Charles Hoelter in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index rating more than 25 points above the national average, has long favored Democratic candidates, as shown by Mullin's 73 percent win in 2024. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party incorporates this structural advantage along with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or polling shifts. Potential disruptions remain limited to late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unusual turnout patterns that have occasionally altered safe-seat outcomes in prior cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$116,421结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2, 2026, primary in California's 15th congressional district with roughly 61 percent of the vote, facing Republican Charles Hoelter in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index rating more than 25 points above the national average, has long favored Democratic candidates, as shown by Mullin's 73 percent win in 2024. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party incorporates this structural advantage along with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or polling shifts. Potential disruptions remain limited to late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unusual turnout patterns that have occasionally altered safe-seat outcomes in prior cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$116,421结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced from the June 2, 2026, primary in California's 15th congressional district with roughly 61 percent of the vote, facing Republican Charles Hoelter in the November general election. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index rating more than 25 points above the national average, has long favored Democratic candidates, as shown by Mullin's 73 percent win in 2024. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party incorporates this structural advantage along with the absence of competitive Republican challengers or polling shifts. Potential disruptions remain limited to late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unusual turnout patterns that have occasionally altered safe-seat outcomes in prior cycles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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