The East Bay district's voter registration heavily favors Democrats, with registration patterns and past election results establishing a consistent partisan lean that limits Republican competitiveness. The April 2026 resignation of the prior Democratic incumbent triggered a special election with a June 16 primary and possible August general, where multiple Democratic candidates, including state Sen. Aisha Wahab who secured the party endorsement and led early vote counts, dominate the field. Republican entrants remain fragmented and trail significantly. Trader consensus at 95% for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen primary consolidation failure or late legal development could theoretically alter the path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$29,329 交易量
$29,329 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$29,329 交易量
$29,329 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$10,958 交易量
95%
共和党
$18,371 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The East Bay district's voter registration heavily favors Democrats, with registration patterns and past election results establishing a consistent partisan lean that limits Republican competitiveness. The April 2026 resignation of the prior Democratic incumbent triggered a special election with a June 16 primary and possible August general, where multiple Democratic candidates, including state Sen. Aisha Wahab who secured the party endorsement and led early vote counts, dominate the field. Republican entrants remain fragmented and trail significantly. Trader consensus at 95% for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen primary consolidation failure or late legal development could theoretically alter the path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$29,329结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The East Bay district's voter registration heavily favors Democrats, with registration patterns and past election results establishing a consistent partisan lean that limits Republican competitiveness. The April 2026 resignation of the prior Democratic incumbent triggered a special election with a June 16 primary and possible August general, where multiple Democratic candidates, including state Sen. Aisha Wahab who secured the party endorsement and led early vote counts, dominate the field. Republican entrants remain fragmented and trail significantly. Trader consensus at 95% for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen primary consolidation failure or late legal development could theoretically alter the path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$29,329结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The East Bay district's voter registration heavily favors Democrats, with registration patterns and past election results establishing a consistent partisan lean that limits Republican competitiveness. The April 2026 resignation of the prior Democratic incumbent triggered a special election with a June 16 primary and possible August general, where multiple Democratic candidates, including state Sen. Aisha Wahab who secured the party endorsement and led early vote counts, dominate the field. Republican entrants remain fragmented and trail significantly. Trader consensus at 95% for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen primary consolidation failure or late legal development could theoretically alter the path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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