The eastern San Francisco Bay Area district’s heavy Democratic voter registration advantage and D+20 partisan lean have anchored trader consensus on a Democratic outcome in the August special general election. Eric Swalwell’s April resignation triggered the contest, leaving an open seat in a constituency where Democrats have held the House seat continuously for years and routinely win general elections by wide margins. The June 16 top-two primary features multiple Democratic candidates, including state Senator Aisha Wahab who secured the state party endorsement, while Republican contenders remain limited and underfunded. Historical patterns in comparable safe Democratic districts show little crossover support for Republicans absent major scandals or turnout anomalies. Late developments such as candidate withdrawals, new allegations, or unusually high Republican mobilization could narrow the gap before August voting concludes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$29,319 交易量
$29,319 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$29,319 交易量
$29,319 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$10,958 交易量
95%
共和党
$18,361 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The eastern San Francisco Bay Area district’s heavy Democratic voter registration advantage and D+20 partisan lean have anchored trader consensus on a Democratic outcome in the August special general election. Eric Swalwell’s April resignation triggered the contest, leaving an open seat in a constituency where Democrats have held the House seat continuously for years and routinely win general elections by wide margins. The June 16 top-two primary features multiple Democratic candidates, including state Senator Aisha Wahab who secured the state party endorsement, while Republican contenders remain limited and underfunded. Historical patterns in comparable safe Democratic districts show little crossover support for Republicans absent major scandals or turnout anomalies. Late developments such as candidate withdrawals, new allegations, or unusually high Republican mobilization could narrow the gap before August voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$29,319结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The eastern San Francisco Bay Area district’s heavy Democratic voter registration advantage and D+20 partisan lean have anchored trader consensus on a Democratic outcome in the August special general election. Eric Swalwell’s April resignation triggered the contest, leaving an open seat in a constituency where Democrats have held the House seat continuously for years and routinely win general elections by wide margins. The June 16 top-two primary features multiple Democratic candidates, including state Senator Aisha Wahab who secured the state party endorsement, while Republican contenders remain limited and underfunded. Historical patterns in comparable safe Democratic districts show little crossover support for Republicans absent major scandals or turnout anomalies. Late developments such as candidate withdrawals, new allegations, or unusually high Republican mobilization could narrow the gap before August voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$29,319结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The eastern San Francisco Bay Area district’s heavy Democratic voter registration advantage and D+20 partisan lean have anchored trader consensus on a Democratic outcome in the August special general election. Eric Swalwell’s April resignation triggered the contest, leaving an open seat in a constituency where Democrats have held the House seat continuously for years and routinely win general elections by wide margins. The June 16 top-two primary features multiple Democratic candidates, including state Senator Aisha Wahab who secured the state party endorsement, while Republican contenders remain limited and underfunded. Historical patterns in comparable safe Democratic districts show little crossover support for Republicans absent major scandals or turnout anomalies. Late developments such as candidate withdrawals, new allegations, or unusually high Republican mobilization could narrow the gap before August voting concludes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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