Democratic Rep. Josh Harder, first elected in 2018 and seeking a fifth term, advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 primary in California's 9th Congressional District with roughly 61 percent of the vote against Republican John McBride. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic lean (Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+8) reinforced by recent redistricting, giving the incumbent a structural edge in a district spanning parts of the eastern Bay Area and northern San Joaquin Valley. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals along with California's broader electoral patterns. A Democratic loss would require an unusually large national swing, a major scandal, or sharp turnout collapse—developments not currently signaled by polling or fundraising data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,062 交易量
$15,062 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$15,062 交易量
$15,062 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$11,243 交易量
94%
共和党
$3,819 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Rep. Josh Harder, first elected in 2018 and seeking a fifth term, advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 primary in California's 9th Congressional District with roughly 61 percent of the vote against Republican John McBride. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic lean (Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+8) reinforced by recent redistricting, giving the incumbent a structural edge in a district spanning parts of the eastern Bay Area and northern San Joaquin Valley. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals along with California's broader electoral patterns. A Democratic loss would require an unusually large national swing, a major scandal, or sharp turnout collapse—developments not currently signaled by polling or fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$15,062结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Rep. Josh Harder, first elected in 2018 and seeking a fifth term, advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 primary in California's 9th Congressional District with roughly 61 percent of the vote against Republican John McBride. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic lean (Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+8) reinforced by recent redistricting, giving the incumbent a structural edge in a district spanning parts of the eastern Bay Area and northern San Joaquin Valley. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals along with California's broader electoral patterns. A Democratic loss would require an unusually large national swing, a major scandal, or sharp turnout collapse—developments not currently signaled by polling or fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,062结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic Rep. Josh Harder, first elected in 2018 and seeking a fifth term, advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 primary in California's 9th Congressional District with roughly 61 percent of the vote against Republican John McBride. The seat carries a pronounced Democratic lean (Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+8) reinforced by recent redistricting, giving the incumbent a structural edge in a district spanning parts of the eastern Bay Area and northern San Joaquin Valley. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals along with California's broader electoral patterns. A Democratic loss would require an unusually large national swing, a major scandal, or sharp turnout collapse—developments not currently signaled by polling or fundraising data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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