The pronounced Democratic lean of California's 8th congressional district, reflected in its D+19 to D+24 Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 74 percent share of the 2024 vote, underpins the market's 93.5 percent consensus on a Democratic victory. Incumbent John Garamendi advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary against Republican Rudy Recile and two other Democrats, reinforcing expectations ahead of the November 3 general election. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as solidly Democratic. While structural advantages make an upset unlikely, scenarios such as a major scandal involving the nominee, a significant health event, or an unforeseen national political shift could still alter the outcome before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$14,569 交易量
$14,569 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$14,569 交易量
$14,569 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$8,067 交易量
94%
共和党
$6,501 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The pronounced Democratic lean of California's 8th congressional district, reflected in its D+19 to D+24 Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 74 percent share of the 2024 vote, underpins the market's 93.5 percent consensus on a Democratic victory. Incumbent John Garamendi advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary against Republican Rudy Recile and two other Democrats, reinforcing expectations ahead of the November 3 general election. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as solidly Democratic. While structural advantages make an upset unlikely, scenarios such as a major scandal involving the nominee, a significant health event, or an unforeseen national political shift could still alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$14,569结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The pronounced Democratic lean of California's 8th congressional district, reflected in its D+19 to D+24 Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 74 percent share of the 2024 vote, underpins the market's 93.5 percent consensus on a Democratic victory. Incumbent John Garamendi advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary against Republican Rudy Recile and two other Democrats, reinforcing expectations ahead of the November 3 general election. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as solidly Democratic. While structural advantages make an upset unlikely, scenarios such as a major scandal involving the nominee, a significant health event, or an unforeseen national political shift could still alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$14,569结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The pronounced Democratic lean of California's 8th congressional district, reflected in its D+19 to D+24 Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 74 percent share of the 2024 vote, underpins the market's 93.5 percent consensus on a Democratic victory. Incumbent John Garamendi advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary against Republican Rudy Recile and two other Democrats, reinforcing expectations ahead of the November 3 general election. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as solidly Democratic. While structural advantages make an upset unlikely, scenarios such as a major scandal involving the nominee, a significant health event, or an unforeseen national political shift could still alter the outcome before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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