California's 8th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, with voter registration favoring Democrats by a wide margin and race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Incumbent John Garamendi faces multiple Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, while the sole Republican candidate trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the district's consistent performance in recent cycles, underpin the current trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability. A Republican victory would require an unexpected primary outcome advancing a stronger challenger or a major shift in voter sentiment before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$13,300 交易量
$13,300 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$13,300 交易量
$13,300 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,798 交易量
94%
共和党
$6,501 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 8th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, with voter registration favoring Democrats by a wide margin and race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Incumbent John Garamendi faces multiple Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, while the sole Republican candidate trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the district's consistent performance in recent cycles, underpin the current trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability. A Republican victory would require an unexpected primary outcome advancing a stronger challenger or a major shift in voter sentiment before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$13,300结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 8th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, with voter registration favoring Democrats by a wide margin and race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Incumbent John Garamendi faces multiple Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, while the sole Republican candidate trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the district's consistent performance in recent cycles, underpin the current trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability. A Republican victory would require an unexpected primary outcome advancing a stronger challenger or a major shift in voter sentiment before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,300结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 8th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, with voter registration favoring Democrats by a wide margin and race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Incumbent John Garamendi faces multiple Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary, while the sole Republican candidate trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the district's consistent performance in recent cycles, underpin the current trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability. A Republican victory would require an unexpected primary outcome advancing a stronger challenger or a major shift in voter sentiment before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题