California’s 8th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+24, placing it among the state’s most reliably Democratic seats and producing consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative John Garamendi advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Rudy Recile, confirming the general-election matchup months before November 3. Nonpartisan forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have rated the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the current 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The district’s voter composition and Garamendi’s long tenure create substantial structural headwinds for any Republican challenger. Only an unusually large national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development would be likely to alter the outcome before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$14,569 交易量
$14,569 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$14,569 交易量
$14,569 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$8,067 交易量
94%
共和党
$6,501 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 8th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+24, placing it among the state’s most reliably Democratic seats and producing consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative John Garamendi advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Rudy Recile, confirming the general-election matchup months before November 3. Nonpartisan forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have rated the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the current 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The district’s voter composition and Garamendi’s long tenure create substantial structural headwinds for any Republican challenger. Only an unusually large national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development would be likely to alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$14,569结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 8th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+24, placing it among the state’s most reliably Democratic seats and producing consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative John Garamendi advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Rudy Recile, confirming the general-election matchup months before November 3. Nonpartisan forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have rated the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the current 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The district’s voter composition and Garamendi’s long tenure create substantial structural headwinds for any Republican challenger. Only an unusually large national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development would be likely to alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$14,569结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 8th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+24, placing it among the state’s most reliably Democratic seats and producing consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative John Garamendi advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican Rudy Recile, confirming the general-election matchup months before November 3. Nonpartisan forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have rated the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the current 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The district’s voter composition and Garamendi’s long tenure create substantial structural headwinds for any Republican challenger. Only an unusually large national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development would be likely to alter the outcome before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题