Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a tightened contest in Florida's 14th district after recent redistricting shifted boundaries southward and eastward into more rural, Republican-leaning portions of Hillsborough County. The new map gives the seat a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4, with analysts noting former President Trump would have carried the updated district by roughly 10 points. Both parties hold contested August 18 primaries ahead of the November general election, and national midterm dynamics plus fundraising trends keep the race within a narrow band. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a modest 56.5% implied probability, reflecting Castor's long incumbency and name recognition against the structural headwinds of the revised district lines. Late primary results or shifts in the broader political environment could quickly widen the gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$21,168 交易量
$21,168 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
57%
共和党
46%
$21,168 交易量
$21,168 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$9,272 交易量
57%
共和党
$11,895 交易量
46%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a tightened contest in Florida's 14th district after recent redistricting shifted boundaries southward and eastward into more rural, Republican-leaning portions of Hillsborough County. The new map gives the seat a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4, with analysts noting former President Trump would have carried the updated district by roughly 10 points. Both parties hold contested August 18 primaries ahead of the November general election, and national midterm dynamics plus fundraising trends keep the race within a narrow band. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a modest 56.5% implied probability, reflecting Castor's long incumbency and name recognition against the structural headwinds of the revised district lines. Late primary results or shifts in the broader political environment could quickly widen the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
交易量
$21,168结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a tightened contest in Florida's 14th district after recent redistricting shifted boundaries southward and eastward into more rural, Republican-leaning portions of Hillsborough County. The new map gives the seat a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4, with analysts noting former President Trump would have carried the updated district by roughly 10 points. Both parties hold contested August 18 primaries ahead of the November general election, and national midterm dynamics plus fundraising trends keep the race within a narrow band. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a modest 56.5% implied probability, reflecting Castor's long incumbency and name recognition against the structural headwinds of the revised district lines. Late primary results or shifts in the broader political environment could quickly widen the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$21,168结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a tightened contest in Florida's 14th district after recent redistricting shifted boundaries southward and eastward into more rural, Republican-leaning portions of Hillsborough County. The new map gives the seat a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4, with analysts noting former President Trump would have carried the updated district by roughly 10 points. Both parties hold contested August 18 primaries ahead of the November general election, and national midterm dynamics plus fundraising trends keep the race within a narrow band. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a modest 56.5% implied probability, reflecting Castor's long incumbency and name recognition against the structural headwinds of the revised district lines. Late primary results or shifts in the broader political environment could quickly widen the gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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