Democratic incumbent Kathy Castor maintains an edge in Florida's 14th congressional district ahead of the August 18 Republican primary and November general election. Recent St. Pete Polls show her leading top GOP contenders by 7-9 points, bolstered by her long tenure, name recognition, and fundraising advantage over primary rivals. The district's R+4 partisan voter index reflects post-redistricting shifts that added more rural territory, yet the market's 58.5% Democratic consensus incorporates Castor's consistent general-election performance and the absence of a contested Democratic primary. A crowded Republican primary field, including candidates such as Mike Beltran and Kevin Steele, has yet to consolidate behind a single challenger. Traders appear to weigh these structural and polling factors when pricing the seat as competitive but with an early Democratic tilt in implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$29,248 交易量
$29,248 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
59%
共和党
39%
$29,248 交易量
$29,248 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,806 交易量
59%
共和党
$14,442 交易量
39%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Kathy Castor maintains an edge in Florida's 14th congressional district ahead of the August 18 Republican primary and November general election. Recent St. Pete Polls show her leading top GOP contenders by 7-9 points, bolstered by her long tenure, name recognition, and fundraising advantage over primary rivals. The district's R+4 partisan voter index reflects post-redistricting shifts that added more rural territory, yet the market's 58.5% Democratic consensus incorporates Castor's consistent general-election performance and the absence of a contested Democratic primary. A crowded Republican primary field, including candidates such as Mike Beltran and Kevin Steele, has yet to consolidate behind a single challenger. Traders appear to weigh these structural and polling factors when pricing the seat as competitive but with an early Democratic tilt in implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
交易量
$29,248结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Kathy Castor maintains an edge in Florida's 14th congressional district ahead of the August 18 Republican primary and November general election. Recent St. Pete Polls show her leading top GOP contenders by 7-9 points, bolstered by her long tenure, name recognition, and fundraising advantage over primary rivals. The district's R+4 partisan voter index reflects post-redistricting shifts that added more rural territory, yet the market's 58.5% Democratic consensus incorporates Castor's consistent general-election performance and the absence of a contested Democratic primary. A crowded Republican primary field, including candidates such as Mike Beltran and Kevin Steele, has yet to consolidate behind a single challenger. Traders appear to weigh these structural and polling factors when pricing the seat as competitive but with an early Democratic tilt in implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$29,248结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Kathy Castor maintains an edge in Florida's 14th congressional district ahead of the August 18 Republican primary and November general election. Recent St. Pete Polls show her leading top GOP contenders by 7-9 points, bolstered by her long tenure, name recognition, and fundraising advantage over primary rivals. The district's R+4 partisan voter index reflects post-redistricting shifts that added more rural territory, yet the market's 58.5% Democratic consensus incorporates Castor's consistent general-election performance and the absence of a contested Democratic primary. A crowded Republican primary field, including candidates such as Mike Beltran and Kevin Steele, has yet to consolidate behind a single challenger. Traders appear to weigh these structural and polling factors when pricing the seat as competitive but with an early Democratic tilt in implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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