Florida's 15th congressional district, anchored in the Tampa Bay area, carries a Republican-leaning partisan profile reinforced by post-2020 redistricting that shifted its Cook Partisan Voting Index to R+9. Incumbent Republican Laurel Lee faces only a nominal primary challenge on August 18, 2026, while Democrats field multiple candidates in their concurrent primary with no established frontrunner or significant fundraising edge reported. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the seat Solid or Safe Republican since early 2025. These structural factors, combined with the absence of major polling shifts or campaign developments in recent months, underpin traders' assessment of an 81.5% probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3, 2026 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
82%
民主党
16%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$3,116 交易量
82%
民主党
$3,786 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 15th congressional district, anchored in the Tampa Bay area, carries a Republican-leaning partisan profile reinforced by post-2020 redistricting that shifted its Cook Partisan Voting Index to R+9. Incumbent Republican Laurel Lee faces only a nominal primary challenge on August 18, 2026, while Democrats field multiple candidates in their concurrent primary with no established frontrunner or significant fundraising edge reported. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the seat Solid or Safe Republican since early 2025. These structural factors, combined with the absence of major polling shifts or campaign developments in recent months, underpin traders' assessment of an 81.5% probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
交易量
$6,903结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 15th congressional district, anchored in the Tampa Bay area, carries a Republican-leaning partisan profile reinforced by post-2020 redistricting that shifted its Cook Partisan Voting Index to R+9. Incumbent Republican Laurel Lee faces only a nominal primary challenge on August 18, 2026, while Democrats field multiple candidates in their concurrent primary with no established frontrunner or significant fundraising edge reported. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the seat Solid or Safe Republican since early 2025. These structural factors, combined with the absence of major polling shifts or campaign developments in recent months, underpin traders' assessment of an 81.5% probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$6,903结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 15th congressional district, anchored in the Tampa Bay area, carries a Republican-leaning partisan profile reinforced by post-2020 redistricting that shifted its Cook Partisan Voting Index to R+9. Incumbent Republican Laurel Lee faces only a nominal primary challenge on August 18, 2026, while Democrats field multiple candidates in their concurrent primary with no established frontrunner or significant fundraising edge reported. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the seat Solid or Safe Republican since early 2025. These structural factors, combined with the absence of major polling shifts or campaign developments in recent months, underpin traders' assessment of an 81.5% probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3, 2026 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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