Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs, first elected in 2020 and representing a San Diego-area district with a pronounced Democratic lean, advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 58 percent of the vote against Republican Ricardo Cabrera. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in November. Cabrera's primary showing established him as the general-election opponent, yet fundraising gaps, voter registration advantages, and the absence of competitive polling keep the race non-competitive in most assessments. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, health event affecting Jacobs, or an unusually strong Republican national environment that boosts turnout in suburban precincts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$28,957 交易量
$28,957 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$28,957 交易量
$28,957 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,910 交易量
94%
共和党
$14,046 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs, first elected in 2020 and representing a San Diego-area district with a pronounced Democratic lean, advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 58 percent of the vote against Republican Ricardo Cabrera. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in November. Cabrera's primary showing established him as the general-election opponent, yet fundraising gaps, voter registration advantages, and the absence of competitive polling keep the race non-competitive in most assessments. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, health event affecting Jacobs, or an unusually strong Republican national environment that boosts turnout in suburban precincts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$28,957结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs, first elected in 2020 and representing a San Diego-area district with a pronounced Democratic lean, advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 58 percent of the vote against Republican Ricardo Cabrera. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in November. Cabrera's primary showing established him as the general-election opponent, yet fundraising gaps, voter registration advantages, and the absence of competitive polling keep the race non-competitive in most assessments. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, health event affecting Jacobs, or an unusually strong Republican national environment that boosts turnout in suburban precincts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$28,957结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs, first elected in 2020 and representing a San Diego-area district with a pronounced Democratic lean, advanced comfortably from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary with roughly 58 percent of the vote against Republican Ricardo Cabrera. The seat's partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles underpin the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in November. Cabrera's primary showing established him as the general-election opponent, yet fundraising gaps, voter registration advantages, and the absence of competitive polling keep the race non-competitive in most assessments. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, health event affecting Jacobs, or an unusually strong Republican national environment that boosts turnout in suburban precincts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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