Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs advanced comfortably from California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 51st congressional district, securing roughly 57 percent against Republican Ricardo Cabrera's 37 percent. The San Diego-area seat features strong Democratic voter registration and consistent performance in recent cycles, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the wide margin leaves limited room for shifts absent major unforeseen developments such as a significant scandal or abrupt change in national political conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$28,957 交易量
$28,957 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$28,957 交易量
$28,957 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,910 交易量
94%
共和党
$14,046 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs advanced comfortably from California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 51st congressional district, securing roughly 57 percent against Republican Ricardo Cabrera's 37 percent. The San Diego-area seat features strong Democratic voter registration and consistent performance in recent cycles, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the wide margin leaves limited room for shifts absent major unforeseen developments such as a significant scandal or abrupt change in national political conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$28,957结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs advanced comfortably from California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 51st congressional district, securing roughly 57 percent against Republican Ricardo Cabrera's 37 percent. The San Diego-area seat features strong Democratic voter registration and consistent performance in recent cycles, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the wide margin leaves limited room for shifts absent major unforeseen developments such as a significant scandal or abrupt change in national political conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$28,957结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs advanced comfortably from California's June 2026 top-two primary for the 51st congressional district, securing roughly 57 percent against Republican Ricardo Cabrera's 37 percent. The San Diego-area seat features strong Democratic voter registration and consistent performance in recent cycles, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the wide margin leaves limited room for shifts absent major unforeseen developments such as a significant scandal or abrupt change in national political conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题