Incumbent Democratic Representative Juan Vargas advanced from the June 2 primary in California's 52nd congressional district to face Republican Jeff Belle in the November general election. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+13, reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential and congressional voting. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on this structural lean and Vargas's established record. Trader consensus at 92% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,252 交易量
$42,252 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
6%
$42,252 交易量
$42,252 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$31,789 交易量
92%
共和党
$10,463 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Juan Vargas advanced from the June 2 primary in California's 52nd congressional district to face Republican Jeff Belle in the November general election. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+13, reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential and congressional voting. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on this structural lean and Vargas's established record. Trader consensus at 92% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$42,252结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Juan Vargas advanced from the June 2 primary in California's 52nd congressional district to face Republican Jeff Belle in the November general election. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+13, reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential and congressional voting. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on this structural lean and Vargas's established record. Trader consensus at 92% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$42,252结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Juan Vargas advanced from the June 2 primary in California's 52nd congressional district to face Republican Jeff Belle in the November general election. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+13, reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential and congressional voting. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on this structural lean and Vargas's established record. Trader consensus at 92% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these factors and the absence of competitive polling shifts. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national Republican surge could still narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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