Oklahoma’s 1st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat with an R+11 partisan voter index and a consistent history of double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. The open-seat dynamic created by incumbent Kevin Hern’s Senate bid has not altered the underlying partisan composition, as the Tulsa-area district favored the Republican presidential nominee by roughly 21 points in the prior election. Republican primary voters are set to decide their nominee in an August 25 runoff, while the Democratic nominee advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that places the GOP at 90.5 percent implied probability. A national political shift of historic scale or an unforeseen late development in the runoff could still narrow the margin, though such outcomes would deviate sharply from established voting patterns and base rates in comparable districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,782 交易量
$24,782 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
$24,782 交易量
$24,782 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$12,928 交易量
91%
民主党
$11,854 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma’s 1st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat with an R+11 partisan voter index and a consistent history of double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. The open-seat dynamic created by incumbent Kevin Hern’s Senate bid has not altered the underlying partisan composition, as the Tulsa-area district favored the Republican presidential nominee by roughly 21 points in the prior election. Republican primary voters are set to decide their nominee in an August 25 runoff, while the Democratic nominee advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that places the GOP at 90.5 percent implied probability. A national political shift of historic scale or an unforeseen late development in the runoff could still narrow the margin, though such outcomes would deviate sharply from established voting patterns and base rates in comparable districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$24,782结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma’s 1st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat with an R+11 partisan voter index and a consistent history of double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. The open-seat dynamic created by incumbent Kevin Hern’s Senate bid has not altered the underlying partisan composition, as the Tulsa-area district favored the Republican presidential nominee by roughly 21 points in the prior election. Republican primary voters are set to decide their nominee in an August 25 runoff, while the Democratic nominee advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that places the GOP at 90.5 percent implied probability. A national political shift of historic scale or an unforeseen late development in the runoff could still narrow the margin, though such outcomes would deviate sharply from established voting patterns and base rates in comparable districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$24,782结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma’s 1st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat with an R+11 partisan voter index and a consistent history of double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. The open-seat dynamic created by incumbent Kevin Hern’s Senate bid has not altered the underlying partisan composition, as the Tulsa-area district favored the Republican presidential nominee by roughly 21 points in the prior election. Republican primary voters are set to decide their nominee in an August 25 runoff, while the Democratic nominee advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that places the GOP at 90.5 percent implied probability. A national political shift of historic scale or an unforeseen late development in the runoff could still narrow the margin, though such outcomes would deviate sharply from established voting patterns and base rates in comparable districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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