Incumbent Democratic Representative Zoe Lofgren advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly 55 percent of the vote against Republican Shane Lewis and other challengers, setting up a November general election in a district with a D+16 partisan voter index. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic due to its consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, Lofgren's long tenure and substantial fundraising edge, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area. The current market pricing reflects trader assessment of these structural advantages. A major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current polling trends indicate limited near-term pathways for such shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$40,034 交易量
$40,034 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
97%
共和党
2%
$40,034 交易量
$40,034 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$20,829 交易量
97%
共和党
$19,206 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Zoe Lofgren advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly 55 percent of the vote against Republican Shane Lewis and other challengers, setting up a November general election in a district with a D+16 partisan voter index. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic due to its consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, Lofgren's long tenure and substantial fundraising edge, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area. The current market pricing reflects trader assessment of these structural advantages. A major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current polling trends indicate limited near-term pathways for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$40,034结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Zoe Lofgren advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly 55 percent of the vote against Republican Shane Lewis and other challengers, setting up a November general election in a district with a D+16 partisan voter index. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic due to its consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, Lofgren's long tenure and substantial fundraising edge, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area. The current market pricing reflects trader assessment of these structural advantages. A major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current polling trends indicate limited near-term pathways for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$40,034结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETIncumbent Democratic Representative Zoe Lofgren advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with nearly 55 percent of the vote against Republican Shane Lewis and other challengers, setting up a November general election in a district with a D+16 partisan voter index. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic due to its consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, Lofgren's long tenure and substantial fundraising edge, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area. The current market pricing reflects trader assessment of these structural advantages. A major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current polling trends indicate limited near-term pathways for such shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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