California's 36th congressional district maintains a substantial Democratic voter registration edge and consistent history of large margins in federal contests, reinforced by nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Incumbent Ted Lieu secured roughly 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing alongside Republican Houston Brignano amid limited GOP fundraising and no competitive public polling. These structural factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee a commanding implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-cycle turnout changes, national political waves altering local dynamics, or unforeseen candidate developments before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$35,241 交易量
$35,241 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$35,241 交易量
$35,241 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$6,297 交易量
95%
共和党
$28,944 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 36th congressional district maintains a substantial Democratic voter registration edge and consistent history of large margins in federal contests, reinforced by nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Incumbent Ted Lieu secured roughly 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing alongside Republican Houston Brignano amid limited GOP fundraising and no competitive public polling. These structural factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee a commanding implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-cycle turnout changes, national political waves altering local dynamics, or unforeseen candidate developments before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$35,241结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 36th congressional district maintains a substantial Democratic voter registration edge and consistent history of large margins in federal contests, reinforced by nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Incumbent Ted Lieu secured roughly 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing alongside Republican Houston Brignano amid limited GOP fundraising and no competitive public polling. These structural factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee a commanding implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-cycle turnout changes, national political waves altering local dynamics, or unforeseen candidate developments before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,241结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCalifornia's 36th congressional district maintains a substantial Democratic voter registration edge and consistent history of large margins in federal contests, reinforced by nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Incumbent Ted Lieu secured roughly 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing alongside Republican Houston Brignano amid limited GOP fundraising and no competitive public polling. These structural factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Democratic nominee a commanding implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-cycle turnout changes, national political waves altering local dynamics, or unforeseen candidate developments before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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