Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit around 6-8 seats, reflecting vote shares typically in the 5-7% range amid competition from Likud, Religious Zionism, and other right-wing lists. Trader consensus on higher outcomes like 7.5%+ draws from the party's finalized slate, which added a Haredi candidate and English-speaking advocate to broaden appeal, alongside Itamar Ben-Gvir's public demands for the Defense Ministry and aggressive disqualification petitions against Arab lists that may energize its base. Lower brackets account for risks from bloc fragmentation, turnout shifts, and competition for nationalist voters in a contest where neither major coalition has secured a clear majority. Scheduled Supreme Court reviews of candidate disqualifications by early October add further near-term uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.5-5.5% 31%
5.5-6.5% 29%
7.5%及以上 24%
低于4.5% 23%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
低于4.5%
23%
4.5-5.5%
31%
5.5-6.5%
29%
6.5-7.5%
14%
7.5%及以上
24%
4.5-5.5% 31%
5.5-6.5% 29%
7.5%及以上 24%
低于4.5% 23%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
低于4.5%
$41 交易量
23%
4.5-5.5%
$239 交易量
31%
5.5-6.5%
$117 交易量
29%
6.5-7.5%
$148 交易量
14%
7.5%及以上
$344 交易量
24%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit around 6-8 seats, reflecting vote shares typically in the 5-7% range amid competition from Likud, Religious Zionism, and other right-wing lists. Trader consensus on higher outcomes like 7.5%+ draws from the party's finalized slate, which added a Haredi candidate and English-speaking advocate to broaden appeal, alongside Itamar Ben-Gvir's public demands for the Defense Ministry and aggressive disqualification petitions against Arab lists that may energize its base. Lower brackets account for risks from bloc fragmentation, turnout shifts, and competition for nationalist voters in a contest where neither major coalition has secured a clear majority. Scheduled Supreme Court reviews of candidate disqualifications by early October add further near-term uncertainty.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
市场开放时间： Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
交易量
$888结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit around 6-8 seats, reflecting vote shares typically in the 5-7% range amid competition from Likud, Religious Zionism, and other right-wing lists. Trader consensus on higher outcomes like 7.5%+ draws from the party's finalized slate, which added a Haredi candidate and English-speaking advocate to broaden appeal, alongside Itamar Ben-Gvir's public demands for the Defense Ministry and aggressive disqualification petitions against Arab lists that may energize its base. Lower brackets account for risks from bloc fragmentation, turnout shifts, and competition for nationalist voters in a contest where neither major coalition has secured a clear majority. Scheduled Supreme Court reviews of candidate disqualifications by early October add further near-term uncertainty.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
交易量
$888结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETRecent polling averages for Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit around 6-8 seats, reflecting vote shares typically in the 5-7% range amid competition from Likud, Religious Zionism, and other right-wing lists. Trader consensus on higher outcomes like 7.5%+ draws from the party's finalized slate, which added a Haredi candidate and English-speaking advocate to broaden appeal, alongside Itamar Ben-Gvir's public demands for the Defense Ministry and aggressive disqualification petitions against Arab lists that may energize its base. Lower brackets account for risks from bloc fragmentation, turnout shifts, and competition for nationalist voters in a contest where neither major coalition has secured a clear majority. Scheduled Supreme Court reviews of candidate disqualifications by early October add further near-term uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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