Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate race in trader consensus due to her strong early fundraising edge, multiple polls showing her ahead or tied with incumbent Dan Sullivan, and proven success under the state's ranked-choice voting system from prior statewide contests. Sullivan, seeking a third term with Trump endorsement, benefits from Alaska's Republican lean but faces headwinds from national Democratic targeting and a crowded August primary that includes another candidate sharing his name, which some reports link to potential voter confusion. The November general election remains fluid, with Peltola's record Q1 haul and recent survey gains driving the market's slight preference amid ongoing campaign developments.