Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate market at 60% because recent head-to-head polling from Alaska Survey Research consistently shows her ahead of or within a few points of incumbent Dan Sullivan, including May surveys placing her at 48% to his 44%. Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the race, backed by record first-quarter fundraising of $8.9 million compared with Sullivan’s $2.1 million, has shifted trader assessments in a state that uses ranked-choice voting. Sullivan, seeking a third term with a Trump endorsement, retains advantages from Alaska’s Republican lean, though a crowded nonpartisan primary featuring a second candidate named Dan Sullivan introduces additional uncertainty ahead of the August primary and November general election.