**Incumbent Democratic Representative Norma Torres advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 59.5% of the vote against Republican Mike Cargile, who received about 40.4%, setting up a November general election matchup in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters.** The seat’s voter registration edge, recent redistricting under California’s Proposition 50 map, and Torres’s consistent reelection margins and fundraising advantage have shaped trader consensus around a strong Democratic hold. Cargile, a repeat challenger, faces structural headwinds in a district spanning portions of Los Angeles, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties. Potential shifts remain possible from late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually large national partisan swing, though no such factors have emerged to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$36,362 交易量
$36,362 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
2%
$36,362 交易量
$36,362 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$20,423 交易量
95%
共和党
$15,940 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democratic Representative Norma Torres advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 59.5% of the vote against Republican Mike Cargile, who received about 40.4%, setting up a November general election matchup in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters.** The seat’s voter registration edge, recent redistricting under California’s Proposition 50 map, and Torres’s consistent reelection margins and fundraising advantage have shaped trader consensus around a strong Democratic hold. Cargile, a repeat challenger, faces structural headwinds in a district spanning portions of Los Angeles, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties. Potential shifts remain possible from late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually large national partisan swing, though no such factors have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$36,362结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democratic Representative Norma Torres advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 59.5% of the vote against Republican Mike Cargile, who received about 40.4%, setting up a November general election matchup in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters.** The seat’s voter registration edge, recent redistricting under California’s Proposition 50 map, and Torres’s consistent reelection margins and fundraising advantage have shaped trader consensus around a strong Democratic hold. Cargile, a repeat challenger, faces structural headwinds in a district spanning portions of Los Angeles, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties. Potential shifts remain possible from late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually large national partisan swing, though no such factors have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$36,362结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Incumbent Democratic Representative Norma Torres advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 59.5% of the vote against Republican Mike Cargile, who received about 40.4%, setting up a November general election matchup in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters.** The seat’s voter registration edge, recent redistricting under California’s Proposition 50 map, and Torres’s consistent reelection margins and fundraising advantage have shaped trader consensus around a strong Democratic hold. Cargile, a repeat challenger, faces structural headwinds in a district spanning portions of Los Angeles, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties. Potential shifts remain possible from late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually large national partisan swing, though no such factors have emerged to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题