Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar advanced from the June 2 primary with a clear majority in California's 33rd district, facing Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November 3 general election. The district's established Democratic lean, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 15 points, combined with Aguilar's House leadership role and fundraising edge, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. California’s top-two primary system and limited Republican field consolidation further reinforce this positioning. A late national political realignment, unusually low Democratic turnout, or major candidate-specific developments could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar safe seats indicate such shifts rarely overcome structural advantages.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$4,274 交易量
94%
共和党
$1,470 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar advanced from the June 2 primary with a clear majority in California's 33rd district, facing Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November 3 general election. The district's established Democratic lean, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 15 points, combined with Aguilar's House leadership role and fundraising edge, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. California’s top-two primary system and limited Republican field consolidation further reinforce this positioning. A late national political realignment, unusually low Democratic turnout, or major candidate-specific developments could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar safe seats indicate such shifts rarely overcome structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$5,744结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar advanced from the June 2 primary with a clear majority in California's 33rd district, facing Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November 3 general election. The district's established Democratic lean, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 15 points, combined with Aguilar's House leadership role and fundraising edge, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. California’s top-two primary system and limited Republican field consolidation further reinforce this positioning. A late national political realignment, unusually low Democratic turnout, or major candidate-specific developments could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar safe seats indicate such shifts rarely overcome structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,744结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar advanced from the June 2 primary with a clear majority in California's 33rd district, facing Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November 3 general election. The district's established Democratic lean, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 15 points, combined with Aguilar's House leadership role and fundraising edge, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. California’s top-two primary system and limited Republican field consolidation further reinforce this positioning. A late national political realignment, unusually low Democratic turnout, or major candidate-specific developments could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similar safe seats indicate such shifts rarely overcome structural advantages.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题