California's 31st congressional district features a strong Democratic structural advantage, reflected in voter registration patterns and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2 top-two primary as the clear leader against Republican Eric Ching, underscoring limited GOP prospects in this environment. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability based on these factors, historical performance in comparable districts, and the absence of recent developments that would shift the competitive balance. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a significant candidate-specific development or an abrupt national political realignment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,015 交易量
$10,015 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$10,015 交易量
$10,015 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,902 交易量
95%
共和党
$3,113 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 31st congressional district features a strong Democratic structural advantage, reflected in voter registration patterns and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2 top-two primary as the clear leader against Republican Eric Ching, underscoring limited GOP prospects in this environment. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability based on these factors, historical performance in comparable districts, and the absence of recent developments that would shift the competitive balance. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a significant candidate-specific development or an abrupt national political realignment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$10,015结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 31st congressional district features a strong Democratic structural advantage, reflected in voter registration patterns and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2 top-two primary as the clear leader against Republican Eric Ching, underscoring limited GOP prospects in this environment. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability based on these factors, historical performance in comparable districts, and the absence of recent developments that would shift the competitive balance. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a significant candidate-specific development or an abrupt national political realignment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$10,015结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 31st congressional district features a strong Democratic structural advantage, reflected in voter registration patterns and consistent nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2 top-two primary as the clear leader against Republican Eric Ching, underscoring limited GOP prospects in this environment. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability based on these factors, historical performance in comparable districts, and the absence of recent developments that would shift the competitive balance. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a significant candidate-specific development or an abrupt national political realignment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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