Incumbent Gil Cisneros holds a commanding position in California's 31st congressional district due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and prior election margins exceeding 15 points. His June 2026 top-two primary victory with roughly 61 percent of the vote advanced him alongside Republican Eric Ching, while nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the seat as solidly Democratic. Cisneros has also maintained a substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Cisneros aligns with these structural factors. An upset would require major late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift that alters turnout or voter priorities in the remaining weeks before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$18,215 交易量
$18,215 交易量
2026-11-02
吉尔·西斯内罗斯（民主党）
96%
Eric Ching（共和党）
5%
$18,215 交易量
$18,215 交易量
2026-11-02
吉尔·西斯内罗斯（民主党）
$8,034 交易量
96%
Eric Ching（共和党）
$10,181 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Gil Cisneros holds a commanding position in California's 31st congressional district due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and prior election margins exceeding 15 points. His June 2026 top-two primary victory with roughly 61 percent of the vote advanced him alongside Republican Eric Ching, while nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the seat as solidly Democratic. Cisneros has also maintained a substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Cisneros aligns with these structural factors. An upset would require major late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift that alters turnout or voter priorities in the remaining weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$18,215结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Gil Cisneros holds a commanding position in California's 31st congressional district due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and prior election margins exceeding 15 points. His June 2026 top-two primary victory with roughly 61 percent of the vote advanced him alongside Republican Eric Ching, while nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the seat as solidly Democratic. Cisneros has also maintained a substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Cisneros aligns with these structural factors. An upset would require major late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift that alters turnout or voter priorities in the remaining weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,215结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETIncumbent Gil Cisneros holds a commanding position in California's 31st congressional district due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration advantages and prior election margins exceeding 15 points. His June 2026 top-two primary victory with roughly 61 percent of the vote advanced him alongside Republican Eric Ching, while nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the seat as solidly Democratic. Cisneros has also maintained a substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Cisneros aligns with these structural factors. An upset would require major late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift that alters turnout or voter priorities in the remaining weeks before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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