California’s 31st congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic advantage rooted in voter registration patterns that heavily favor the party, reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50. Incumbent Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside a Republican challenger, consistent with nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s established partisan baseline and historical margins in similar California seats. A narrow set of developments, such as an unusually large national swing against Democrats or a major candidate-specific issue emerging before November, could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic prospects for an upset.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,015 交易量
$10,015 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$10,015 交易量
$10,015 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,902 交易量
95%
共和党
$3,113 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 31st congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic advantage rooted in voter registration patterns that heavily favor the party, reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50. Incumbent Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside a Republican challenger, consistent with nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s established partisan baseline and historical margins in similar California seats. A narrow set of developments, such as an unusually large national swing against Democrats or a major candidate-specific issue emerging before November, could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic prospects for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$10,015结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 31st congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic advantage rooted in voter registration patterns that heavily favor the party, reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50. Incumbent Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside a Republican challenger, consistent with nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s established partisan baseline and historical margins in similar California seats. A narrow set of developments, such as an unusually large national swing against Democrats or a major candidate-specific issue emerging before November, could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic prospects for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$10,015结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 31st congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic advantage rooted in voter registration patterns that heavily favor the party, reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50. Incumbent Gil Cisneros advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside a Republican challenger, consistent with nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s established partisan baseline and historical margins in similar California seats. A narrow set of developments, such as an unusually large national swing against Democrats or a major candidate-specific issue emerging before November, could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic prospects for an upset.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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