Texas's 31st congressional district carries an R+11 partisan voter index and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, underpinning trader consensus around an 85 percent probability for the GOP nominee. Incumbent John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, clearing the field without a runoff, while Democrat Justin Early emerged from a competitive primary to face him in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal for the challenger in a district where presidential voting margins have favored Republicans by double digits. With five months remaining until Election Day, no major polling shifts or campaign events have altered the baseline advantage tied to incumbency and redistricting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$14,261 交易量
$14,261 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
86%
民主党
16%
$14,261 交易量
$14,261 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$8,990 交易量
86%
民主党
$5,271 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 31st congressional district carries an R+11 partisan voter index and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, underpinning trader consensus around an 85 percent probability for the GOP nominee. Incumbent John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, clearing the field without a runoff, while Democrat Justin Early emerged from a competitive primary to face him in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal for the challenger in a district where presidential voting margins have favored Republicans by double digits. With five months remaining until Election Day, no major polling shifts or campaign events have altered the baseline advantage tied to incumbency and redistricting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$14,261结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 31st congressional district carries an R+11 partisan voter index and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, underpinning trader consensus around an 85 percent probability for the GOP nominee. Incumbent John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, clearing the field without a runoff, while Democrat Justin Early emerged from a competitive primary to face him in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal for the challenger in a district where presidential voting margins have favored Republicans by double digits. With five months remaining until Election Day, no major polling shifts or campaign events have altered the baseline advantage tied to incumbency and redistricting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$14,261结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 31st congressional district carries an R+11 partisan voter index and has consistently supported Republican candidates in recent cycles, underpinning trader consensus around an 85 percent probability for the GOP nominee. Incumbent John Carter secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, clearing the field without a runoff, while Democrat Justin Early emerged from a competitive primary to face him in the November general election. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal for the challenger in a district where presidential voting margins have favored Republicans by double digits. With five months remaining until Election Day, no major polling shifts or campaign events have altered the baseline advantage tied to incumbency and redistricting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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