The Republican nominee holds an 85% implied probability in the TX-31 House election market due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, reinforced by recent primary results and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Incumbent John Carter secured his party’s nomination on March 3, 2026, with roughly 60% of the primary vote despite multiple challengers. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his party’s primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have historically prevailed by wide margins. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major polling shifts or new developments reported in recent weeks, trader consensus aligns with the established partisan baseline and incumbency advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$14,261 交易量
$14,261 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
85%
民主党
16%
$14,261 交易量
$14,261 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$8,990 交易量
85%
民主党
$5,271 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds an 85% implied probability in the TX-31 House election market due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, reinforced by recent primary results and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Incumbent John Carter secured his party’s nomination on March 3, 2026, with roughly 60% of the primary vote despite multiple challengers. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his party’s primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have historically prevailed by wide margins. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major polling shifts or new developments reported in recent weeks, trader consensus aligns with the established partisan baseline and incumbency advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$14,261结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds an 85% implied probability in the TX-31 House election market due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, reinforced by recent primary results and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Incumbent John Carter secured his party’s nomination on March 3, 2026, with roughly 60% of the primary vote despite multiple challengers. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his party’s primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have historically prevailed by wide margins. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major polling shifts or new developments reported in recent weeks, trader consensus aligns with the established partisan baseline and incumbency advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$14,261结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican nominee holds an 85% implied probability in the TX-31 House election market due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, reinforced by recent primary results and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Incumbent John Carter secured his party’s nomination on March 3, 2026, with roughly 60% of the primary vote despite multiple challengers. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his party’s primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have historically prevailed by wide margins. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major polling shifts or new developments reported in recent weeks, trader consensus aligns with the established partisan baseline and incumbency advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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