Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 64.5% to win the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, driven by recent seat projections from polls like Liaison Strategies' May 5 survey showing PQ and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) tied at 32% popular support but PQ securing a projected majority of 76 seats due to superior vote efficiency in Quebec City, Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, and other non-Montreal regions under first-past-the-post rules. The PLQ holds 29% implied probability amid Montreal strength but faces dilution risks, while the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 9% following Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation, leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, and persistent third-place polling around 16%. Minor parties like PCQ, PVQ, and QS trail far behind with under 1% each, as focus remains on the PQ-PLQ battle ahead of the fixed-date vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于魁人党 65%
魁北克自由党 30%
魁人党 9%
魁北克保守党 <1%
$481,288 交易量
$481,288 交易量
2026-10-05
魁人党
65%
魁北克自由党
30%
魁人党
9%
魁北克保守党
<1%
魁北克绿党
<1%
魁团
<1%
魁人党 65%
魁北克自由党 30%
魁人党 9%
魁北克保守党 <1%
$481,288 交易量
$481,288 交易量
2026-10-05
魁人党
$50,330 交易量
65%
魁北克自由党
$55,275 交易量
30%
魁人党
$55,314 交易量
9%
魁北克保守党
$153,556 交易量
<1%
魁北克绿党
$112,827 交易量
<1%
魁团
$53,987 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 64.5% to win the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, driven by recent seat projections from polls like Liaison Strategies' May 5 survey showing PQ and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) tied at 32% popular support but PQ securing a projected majority of 76 seats due to superior vote efficiency in Quebec City, Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, and other non-Montreal regions under first-past-the-post rules. The PLQ holds 29% implied probability amid Montreal strength but faces dilution risks, while the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 9% following Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation, leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, and persistent third-place polling around 16%. Minor parties like PCQ, PVQ, and QS trail far behind with under 1% each, as focus remains on the PQ-PLQ battle ahead of the fixed-date vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$481,288结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 64.5% to win the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, driven by recent seat projections from polls like Liaison Strategies' May 5 survey showing PQ and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) tied at 32% popular support but PQ securing a projected majority of 76 seats due to superior vote efficiency in Quebec City, Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, and other non-Montreal regions under first-past-the-post rules. The PLQ holds 29% implied probability amid Montreal strength but faces dilution risks, while the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 9% following Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation, leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, and persistent third-place polling around 16%. Minor parties like PCQ, PVQ, and QS trail far behind with under 1% each, as focus remains on the PQ-PLQ battle ahead of the fixed-date vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$481,288结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 64.5% to win the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, driven by recent seat projections from polls like Liaison Strategies' May 5 survey showing PQ and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) tied at 32% popular support but PQ securing a projected majority of 76 seats due to superior vote efficiency in Quebec City, Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, and other non-Montreal regions under first-past-the-post rules. The PLQ holds 29% implied probability amid Montreal strength but faces dilution risks, while the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 9% following Premier François Legault's January 2026 resignation, leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, and persistent third-place polling around 16%. Minor parties like PCQ, PVQ, and QS trail far behind with under 1% each, as focus remains on the PQ-PLQ battle ahead of the fixed-date vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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