**PQ leads recent Quebec polling averages at 27-29% popular vote ahead of the October 5 general election, with seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada assigning the party roughly 94% odds of winning the most seats in the National Assembly.** This positioning reflects sustained francophone support and voter desire for change after the CAQ’s extended tenure, even as the PQ’s independence platform introduces some uncertainty around referendum timing. The CAQ under Christine Fréchette has slipped to the mid-20s or lower in most surveys after an earlier campaign bump tied to economic messaging, limiting its path to a plurality. The PLQ, PCQ, QS, and PVQ trail further due to fragmented regional support and lower projected seat totals, keeping their implied probabilities minimal in current trader consensus. Ongoing debates and late-campaign polling have reinforced the PQ’s edge without major shifts in the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于魁人党 82%
魁人党 16%
魁北克自由党 2.5%
魁北克保守党 <1%
$978,141 交易量
$978,141 交易量
2026-10-04
魁人党
82%
魁人党
16%
魁北克自由党
2%
魁北克保守党
<1%
魁团
<1%
魁北克绿党
<1%
魁人党 82%
魁人党 16%
魁北克自由党 2.5%
魁北克保守党 <1%
$978,141 交易量
$978,141 交易量
2026-10-04
魁人党
$160,003 交易量
82%
魁人党
$150,456 交易量
16%
魁北克自由党
$145,939 交易量
2%
魁北克保守党
$257,698 交易量
<1%
魁团
$106,523 交易量
<1%
魁北克绿党
$157,522 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**PQ leads recent Quebec polling averages at 27-29% popular vote ahead of the October 5 general election, with seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada assigning the party roughly 94% odds of winning the most seats in the National Assembly.** This positioning reflects sustained francophone support and voter desire for change after the CAQ’s extended tenure, even as the PQ’s independence platform introduces some uncertainty around referendum timing. The CAQ under Christine Fréchette has slipped to the mid-20s or lower in most surveys after an earlier campaign bump tied to economic messaging, limiting its path to a plurality. The PLQ, PCQ, QS, and PVQ trail further due to fragmented regional support and lower projected seat totals, keeping their implied probabilities minimal in current trader consensus. Ongoing debates and late-campaign polling have reinforced the PQ’s edge without major shifts in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$978,141结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**PQ leads recent Quebec polling averages at 27-29% popular vote ahead of the October 5 general election, with seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada assigning the party roughly 94% odds of winning the most seats in the National Assembly.** This positioning reflects sustained francophone support and voter desire for change after the CAQ’s extended tenure, even as the PQ’s independence platform introduces some uncertainty around referendum timing. The CAQ under Christine Fréchette has slipped to the mid-20s or lower in most surveys after an earlier campaign bump tied to economic messaging, limiting its path to a plurality. The PLQ, PCQ, QS, and PVQ trail further due to fragmented regional support and lower projected seat totals, keeping their implied probabilities minimal in current trader consensus. Ongoing debates and late-campaign polling have reinforced the PQ’s edge without major shifts in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$978,141结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET**PQ leads recent Quebec polling averages at 27-29% popular vote ahead of the October 5 general election, with seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada assigning the party roughly 94% odds of winning the most seats in the National Assembly.** This positioning reflects sustained francophone support and voter desire for change after the CAQ’s extended tenure, even as the PQ’s independence platform introduces some uncertainty around referendum timing. The CAQ under Christine Fréchette has slipped to the mid-20s or lower in most surveys after an earlier campaign bump tied to economic messaging, limiting its path to a plurality. The PLQ, PCQ, QS, and PVQ trail further due to fragmented regional support and lower projected seat totals, keeping their implied probabilities minimal in current trader consensus. Ongoing debates and late-campaign polling have reinforced the PQ’s edge without major shifts in the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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