Recent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows four parties clustered within roughly seven points—Linke near 21-23 percent, CDU at 20-21 percent, AfD at 17-18 percent, and Grüne at 16 percent—while SPD trails further back. This narrow spread, stable across multiple institutes in the final weeks, keeps third-place positioning fluid and explains why traders assign AfD the clearest edge for that spot at 36.5 percent, followed by CDU and Grüne in the low twenties. Small shifts in turnout, preference flows between left-leaning voters, or late mobilization could reorder the middle rankings before election night. The SPD’s lower implied probability aligns with its weaker survey standing, and minor parties remain near zero.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于德国选择党 37%
基民盟 22%
格林党 22%
Linke 16%
$34,280 交易量
$34,280 交易量
2026-09-20
德国选择党
37%
基民盟
22%
格林党
22%
Linke
16%
社民党
7%
BSW
1%
自由民主党
<1%
FW
<1%
德国选择党 37%
基民盟 22%
格林党 22%
Linke 16%
$34,280 交易量
$34,280 交易量
2026-09-20
德国选择党
$7,039 交易量
37%
基民盟
$11,038 交易量
22%
格林党
$4,680 交易量
22%
Linke
$6,372 交易量
16%
社民党
$2,467 交易量
7%
BSW
$903 交易量
1%
自由民主党
$1,069 交易量
<1%
FW
$713 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows four parties clustered within roughly seven points—Linke near 21-23 percent, CDU at 20-21 percent, AfD at 17-18 percent, and Grüne at 16 percent—while SPD trails further back. This narrow spread, stable across multiple institutes in the final weeks, keeps third-place positioning fluid and explains why traders assign AfD the clearest edge for that spot at 36.5 percent, followed by CDU and Grüne in the low twenties. Small shifts in turnout, preference flows between left-leaning voters, or late mobilization could reorder the middle rankings before election night. The SPD’s lower implied probability aligns with its weaker survey standing, and minor parties remain near zero.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
交易量
$34,280结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows four parties clustered within roughly seven points—Linke near 21-23 percent, CDU at 20-21 percent, AfD at 17-18 percent, and Grüne at 16 percent—while SPD trails further back. This narrow spread, stable across multiple institutes in the final weeks, keeps third-place positioning fluid and explains why traders assign AfD the clearest edge for that spot at 36.5 percent, followed by CDU and Grüne in the low twenties. Small shifts in turnout, preference flows between left-leaning voters, or late mobilization could reorder the middle rankings before election night. The SPD’s lower implied probability aligns with its weaker survey standing, and minor parties remain near zero.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$34,280结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETRecent polling ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows four parties clustered within roughly seven points—Linke near 21-23 percent, CDU at 20-21 percent, AfD at 17-18 percent, and Grüne at 16 percent—while SPD trails further back. This narrow spread, stable across multiple institutes in the final weeks, keeps third-place positioning fluid and explains why traders assign AfD the clearest edge for that spot at 36.5 percent, followed by CDU and Grüne in the low twenties. Small shifts in turnout, preference flows between left-leaning voters, or late mobilization could reorder the middle rankings before election night. The SPD’s lower implied probability aligns with its weaker survey standing, and minor parties remain near zero.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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