Recent polling under New Zealand’s MMP system shows a tight contest for the November 7, 2026, election, with Labour and National both often below 30-32 percent and minor parties such as the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and The Opportunities Party (TOP) holding the balance. Several August surveys gave the Labour-Greens-TPM bloc a narrow seat majority, while early September Taxpayers’ Union-Curia results favored the National-ACT-NZ First coalition on 64 seats. Trader consensus at 55.5 percent for Labour versus 44.5 percent for National reflects this volatility and the left bloc’s occasional polling edge, though outcomes hinge on final turnout, TOP’s threshold performance, and post-election negotiations. No decisive late-breaking shift has altered the closely balanced picture.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Labour Party 56%
National Party 44%
Green Party <1%
ACT New Zealand <1%
$59,639 交易量
$59,639 交易量
National Party
44%
Labour Party
56%
Green Party
<1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
New Zealand First Party
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Labour Party 56%
National Party 44%
Green Party <1%
ACT New Zealand <1%
$59,639 交易量
$59,639 交易量
National Party
44%
Labour Party
56%
Green Party
<1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
New Zealand First Party
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Recent polling under New Zealand’s MMP system shows a tight contest for the November 7, 2026, election, with Labour and National both often below 30-32 percent and minor parties such as the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and The Opportunities Party (TOP) holding the balance. Several August surveys gave the Labour-Greens-TPM bloc a narrow seat majority, while early September Taxpayers’ Union-Curia results favored the National-ACT-NZ First coalition on 64 seats. Trader consensus at 55.5 percent for Labour versus 44.5 percent for National reflects this volatility and the left bloc’s occasional polling edge, though outcomes hinge on final turnout, TOP’s threshold performance, and post-election negotiations. No decisive late-breaking shift has altered the closely balanced picture.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于相关
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题