**Traders assign a 64% implied probability that no candidate will secure an outright majority in the first round of the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary (October 9–10), with a potential runoff on October 16–17 if needed.** The contest features multiple declared candidates, including PS first secretary Olivier Faure, Place Publique co-president Raphaël Glucksmann (viewed as an early frontrunner), Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel of the GRS, and others. This fragmentation, combined with internal party divisions over the closed electorate (limited to paid-up members of participating parties plus a 15-euro contribution for the “pôle social-démocrate”), reduces the chance of any single contender reaching the required threshold on the initial ballot. Recent developments reinforcing this outlook include ongoing tensions between the Faure and Glucksmann camps over voter access rules and the exclusion of figures such as François Ruffin, alongside the scheduling of a major televised debate for October 1. These factors point to a closely contested first round likely to require a second ballot, consistent with the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
45% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-10
是
45% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-10
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.**Traders assign a 64% implied probability that no candidate will secure an outright majority in the first round of the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary (October 9–10), with a potential runoff on October 16–17 if needed.**
The contest features multiple declared candidates, including PS first secretary Olivier Faure, Place Publique co-president Raphaël Glucksmann (viewed as an early frontrunner), Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel of the GRS, and others. This fragmentation, combined with internal party divisions over the closed electorate (limited to paid-up members of participating parties plus a 15-euro contribution for the “pôle social-démocrate”), reduces the chance of any single contender reaching the required threshold on the initial ballot.
Recent developments reinforcing this outlook include ongoing tensions between the Faure and Glucksmann camps over voter access rules and the exclusion of figures such as François Ruffin, alongside the scheduling of a major televised debate for October 1. These factors point to a closely contested first round likely to require a second ballot, consistent with the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
市场开放时间： Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
交易量
$70结束日期
2026-10-10市场开放时间
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETThe Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.**Traders assign a 64% implied probability that no candidate will secure an outright majority in the first round of the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary (October 9–10), with a potential runoff on October 16–17 if needed.**
The contest features multiple declared candidates, including PS first secretary Olivier Faure, Place Publique co-president Raphaël Glucksmann (viewed as an early frontrunner), Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel of the GRS, and others. This fragmentation, combined with internal party divisions over the closed electorate (limited to paid-up members of participating parties plus a 15-euro contribution for the “pôle social-démocrate”), reduces the chance of any single contender reaching the required threshold on the initial ballot.
Recent developments reinforcing this outlook include ongoing tensions between the Faure and Glucksmann camps over voter access rules and the exclusion of figures such as François Ruffin, alongside the scheduling of a major televised debate for October 1. These factors point to a closely contested first round likely to require a second ballot, consistent with the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
交易量
$70结束日期
2026-10-10市场开放时间
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET**Traders assign a 64% implied probability that no candidate will secure an outright majority in the first round of the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary (October 9–10), with a potential runoff on October 16–17 if needed.** The contest features multiple declared candidates, including PS first secretary Olivier Faure, Place Publique co-president Raphaël Glucksmann (viewed as an early frontrunner), Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel of the GRS, and others. This fragmentation, combined with internal party divisions over the closed electorate (limited to paid-up members of participating parties plus a 15-euro contribution for the “pôle social-démocrate”), reduces the chance of any single contender reaching the required threshold on the initial ballot. Recent developments reinforcing this outlook include ongoing tensions between the Faure and Glucksmann camps over voter access rules and the exclusion of figures such as François Ruffin, alongside the scheduling of a major televised debate for October 1. These factors point to a closely contested first round likely to require a second ballot, consistent with the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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