Democrats (DFL) currently hold a slim 34-33 majority in the Minnesota State Senate ahead of the November 3, 2026 election for all 67 seats. Traders assign the party an 82.5% implied probability of winning control, consistent with the chamber's recent partisan baseline, stronger DFL fundraising through the Senate Caucus, and Minnesota's broader electoral patterns favoring Democrats in statewide contests. Republicans trail at 17.5% amid a narrower path to a majority, though competitive districts and turnout dynamics remain key variables. Primaries concluded in August without major disruptions to the overall outlook, and forecasters rate the chamber as leaning or safe Democratic based on incumbency and structural factors. Scheduled events through early November could still influence final positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
赚 3.25% 收益
民主党
83%
共和党
18%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
赚 3.25% 收益
民主党
$261 交易量
83%
共和党
$172 交易量
18%
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Minnesota State Senate in the 2026 Minnesota midterm election.
A party wins control of the Minnesota Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected Majority Leader of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no Majority Leader of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
For purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party and the Democratic Party will be considered synonymous.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Minnesota State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats (DFL) currently hold a slim 34-33 majority in the Minnesota State Senate ahead of the November 3, 2026 election for all 67 seats. Traders assign the party an 82.5% implied probability of winning control, consistent with the chamber's recent partisan baseline, stronger DFL fundraising through the Senate Caucus, and Minnesota's broader electoral patterns favoring Democrats in statewide contests. Republicans trail at 17.5% amid a narrower path to a majority, though competitive districts and turnout dynamics remain key variables. Primaries concluded in August without major disruptions to the overall outlook, and forecasters rate the chamber as leaning or safe Democratic based on incumbency and structural factors. Scheduled events through early November could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Minnesota State Senate in the 2026 Minnesota midterm election.
A party wins control of the Minnesota Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected Majority Leader of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no Majority Leader of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
For purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party and the Democratic Party will be considered synonymous.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Minnesota State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A party wins control of the Minnesota Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected Majority Leader of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no Majority Leader of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
For purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party and the Democratic Party will be considered synonymous.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Minnesota State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Sep 10, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$433结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 2:14 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Minnesota State Senate in the 2026 Minnesota midterm election.
A party wins control of the Minnesota Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected Majority Leader of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no Majority Leader of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
For purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party and the Democratic Party will be considered synonymous.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Minnesota State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats (DFL) currently hold a slim 34-33 majority in the Minnesota State Senate ahead of the November 3, 2026 election for all 67 seats. Traders assign the party an 82.5% implied probability of winning control, consistent with the chamber's recent partisan baseline, stronger DFL fundraising through the Senate Caucus, and Minnesota's broader electoral patterns favoring Democrats in statewide contests. Republicans trail at 17.5% amid a narrower path to a majority, though competitive districts and turnout dynamics remain key variables. Primaries concluded in August without major disruptions to the overall outlook, and forecasters rate the chamber as leaning or safe Democratic based on incumbency and structural factors. Scheduled events through early November could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Minnesota State Senate in the 2026 Minnesota midterm election.
A party wins control of the Minnesota Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected Majority Leader of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no Majority Leader of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
For purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party and the Democratic Party will be considered synonymous.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Minnesota State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A party wins control of the Minnesota Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected Majority Leader of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no Majority Leader of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
For purposes of this market, the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party and the Democratic Party will be considered synonymous.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Minnesota State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$433结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 2:14 PM ETDemocrats (DFL) currently hold a slim 34-33 majority in the Minnesota State Senate ahead of the November 3, 2026 election for all 67 seats. Traders assign the party an 82.5% implied probability of winning control, consistent with the chamber's recent partisan baseline, stronger DFL fundraising through the Senate Caucus, and Minnesota's broader electoral patterns favoring Democrats in statewide contests. Republicans trail at 17.5% amid a narrower path to a majority, though competitive districts and turnout dynamics remain key variables. Primaries concluded in August without major disruptions to the overall outlook, and forecasters rate the chamber as leaning or safe Democratic based on incumbency and structural factors. Scheduled events through early November could still influence final positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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