A limited set of 2026 Senate contests remain competitive according to nonpartisan race ratings, with four toss-ups and several leans shaping expectations for races decided by narrow margins. Cook Political Report’s July update and recent Sabato’s Crystal Ball adjustments highlight North Carolina shifting to lean Democratic while Alaska and Ohio moved to toss-up status, reflecting polling trends, candidate recruitment, and state partisan voter indexes. Michigan stands out as a Democratic-held seat in a state carried by Republicans in the prior presidential cycle, while a handful of Republican-held seats face pressure from national environment and turnout dynamics. Most of the 35 seats up see little movement, concentrating trader focus on these battlegrounds ahead of November voting and any late-cycle shifts in fundraising or endorsements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$21,400 交易量
2026-11-03
俄亥俄州（特别）
76%
密歇根州
75%
爱荷华州
74%
阿拉斯加
71%
德克萨斯州
70%
缅因州
66%
新罕布什尔州
47%
内布拉斯加州
44%
佐治亚州
33%
佛罗里达（特别）
29%
北卡罗来纳州
28%
明尼苏达州
25%
新墨西哥州
11%
蒙大拿州
8%
弗吉尼亚州
5%
科罗拉多州
3%
$21,400 交易量
俄亥俄州（特别）
$590 交易量
76%
密歇根州
$519 交易量
75%
爱荷华州
$766 交易量
74%
阿拉斯加
$354 交易量
71%
德克萨斯州
$1,962 交易量
70%
缅因州
$228 交易量
66%
新罕布什尔州
$1,001 交易量
47%
内布拉斯加州
$1,867 交易量
44%
佐治亚州
$263 交易量
33%
佛罗里达（特别）
$977 交易量
29%
北卡罗来纳州
$1,712 交易量
28%
明尼苏达州
$5,613 交易量
25%
新墨西哥州
$1,813 交易量
11%
蒙大拿州
$1,277 交易量
8%
弗吉尼亚州
$897 交易量
5%
科罗拉多州
$1,562 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A limited set of 2026 Senate contests remain competitive according to nonpartisan race ratings, with four toss-ups and several leans shaping expectations for races decided by narrow margins. Cook Political Report’s July update and recent Sabato’s Crystal Ball adjustments highlight North Carolina shifting to lean Democratic while Alaska and Ohio moved to toss-up status, reflecting polling trends, candidate recruitment, and state partisan voter indexes. Michigan stands out as a Democratic-held seat in a state carried by Republicans in the prior presidential cycle, while a handful of Republican-held seats face pressure from national environment and turnout dynamics. Most of the 35 seats up see little movement, concentrating trader focus on these battlegrounds ahead of November voting and any late-cycle shifts in fundraising or endorsements.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$21,400结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A limited set of 2026 Senate contests remain competitive according to nonpartisan race ratings, with four toss-ups and several leans shaping expectations for races decided by narrow margins. Cook Political Report’s July update and recent Sabato’s Crystal Ball adjustments highlight North Carolina shifting to lean Democratic while Alaska and Ohio moved to toss-up status, reflecting polling trends, candidate recruitment, and state partisan voter indexes. Michigan stands out as a Democratic-held seat in a state carried by Republicans in the prior presidential cycle, while a handful of Republican-held seats face pressure from national environment and turnout dynamics. Most of the 35 seats up see little movement, concentrating trader focus on these battlegrounds ahead of November voting and any late-cycle shifts in fundraising or endorsements.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$21,400结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A limited set of 2026 Senate contests remain competitive according to nonpartisan race ratings, with four toss-ups and several leans shaping expectations for races decided by narrow margins. Cook Political Report’s July update and recent Sabato’s Crystal Ball adjustments highlight North Carolina shifting to lean Democratic while Alaska and Ohio moved to toss-up status, reflecting polling trends, candidate recruitment, and state partisan voter indexes. Michigan stands out as a Democratic-held seat in a state carried by Republicans in the prior presidential cycle, while a handful of Republican-held seats face pressure from national environment and turnout dynamics. Most of the 35 seats up see little movement, concentrating trader focus on these battlegrounds ahead of November voting and any late-cycle shifts in fundraising or endorsements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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