Several 2026 Senate contests feature polls showing margins of a few points or less, driving trader consensus toward Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio Special, and Alaska as the likeliest to finish closest. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify these as toss-ups amid open seats in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive matchups involving candidates like Paxton in Texas and Rogers in Michigan. National polling trends and state-specific factors such as turnout in battlegrounds and late-cycle shifts keep probabilities clustered, with any single development in candidate positioning or economic conditions potentially separating one race from the pack before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Texas 15%
Iowa 10.7%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 9.6%
$36,524 交易量
$36,524 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
15%
Iowa
11%
Michigan
11%
Ohio (Special)
10%
Alaska
10%
Maine
9%
Nebraska
7%
Virginia
4%
Colorado
4%
New Hampshire
2%
Florida (Special)
2%
North Carolina
8%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
1%
Montana
1%
Minnesota
1%
Texas 15%
Iowa 10.7%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 9.6%
$36,524 交易量
$36,524 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
$1,816 交易量
15%
Iowa
$2,959 交易量
11%
Michigan
$2,833 交易量
11%
Ohio (Special)
$8,805 交易量
10%
Alaska
$7,267 交易量
10%
Maine
$1,305 交易量
9%
Nebraska
$293 交易量
7%
Virginia
$5,073 交易量
4%
Colorado
$716 交易量
4%
New Hampshire
$659 交易量
2%
Florida (Special)
$253 交易量
2%
North Carolina
$851 交易量
8%
Georgia
$824 交易量
2%
New Mexico
$160 交易量
1%
Montana
$1,221 交易量
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 交易量
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests feature polls showing margins of a few points or less, driving trader consensus toward Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio Special, and Alaska as the likeliest to finish closest. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify these as toss-ups amid open seats in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive matchups involving candidates like Paxton in Texas and Rogers in Michigan. National polling trends and state-specific factors such as turnout in battlegrounds and late-cycle shifts keep probabilities clustered, with any single development in candidate positioning or economic conditions potentially separating one race from the pack before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
交易量
$36,524结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests feature polls showing margins of a few points or less, driving trader consensus toward Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio Special, and Alaska as the likeliest to finish closest. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify these as toss-ups amid open seats in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive matchups involving candidates like Paxton in Texas and Rogers in Michigan. National polling trends and state-specific factors such as turnout in battlegrounds and late-cycle shifts keep probabilities clustered, with any single development in candidate positioning or economic conditions potentially separating one race from the pack before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$36,524结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETSeveral 2026 Senate contests feature polls showing margins of a few points or less, driving trader consensus toward Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio Special, and Alaska as the likeliest to finish closest. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report and others classify these as toss-ups amid open seats in Michigan and Iowa, plus competitive matchups involving candidates like Paxton in Texas and Rogers in Michigan. National polling trends and state-specific factors such as turnout in battlegrounds and late-cycle shifts keep probabilities clustered, with any single development in candidate positioning or economic conditions potentially separating one race from the pack before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题