**The heavily Democratic composition of California’s 11th congressional district, centered in San Francisco, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the 2026 general election.** Voter registration shows roughly 64% Democratic and only 7% Republican identifiers, and the seat has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 60 points in recent cycles, including Nancy Pelosi’s 81% share in 2024. Her retirement opened the race, yet the June 2 top-two primary produced an all-Democratic November matchup between state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan, eliminating any realistic Republican path under California’s electoral rules. **Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s structural tilt and absence of competitive opposition.** The low 3.4% Republican probability reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain remote and would require either a fundamental realignment in local voting patterns or an unforeseen disruption capable of elevating a Republican contender, neither of which has materialized in the current cycle.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,330 交易量
$10,330 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
97%
共和党
3%
$10,330 交易量
$10,330 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,443 交易量
97%
共和党
$3,886 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**The heavily Democratic composition of California’s 11th congressional district, centered in San Francisco, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the 2026 general election.** Voter registration shows roughly 64% Democratic and only 7% Republican identifiers, and the seat has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 60 points in recent cycles, including Nancy Pelosi’s 81% share in 2024. Her retirement opened the race, yet the June 2 top-two primary produced an all-Democratic November matchup between state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan, eliminating any realistic Republican path under California’s electoral rules.
**Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s structural tilt and absence of competitive opposition.** The low 3.4% Republican probability reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain remote and would require either a fundamental realignment in local voting patterns or an unforeseen disruption capable of elevating a Republican contender, neither of which has materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$10,330结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**The heavily Democratic composition of California’s 11th congressional district, centered in San Francisco, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the 2026 general election.** Voter registration shows roughly 64% Democratic and only 7% Republican identifiers, and the seat has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 60 points in recent cycles, including Nancy Pelosi’s 81% share in 2024. Her retirement opened the race, yet the June 2 top-two primary produced an all-Democratic November matchup between state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan, eliminating any realistic Republican path under California’s electoral rules.
**Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s structural tilt and absence of competitive opposition.** The low 3.4% Republican probability reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain remote and would require either a fundamental realignment in local voting patterns or an unforeseen disruption capable of elevating a Republican contender, neither of which has materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$10,330结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**The heavily Democratic composition of California’s 11th congressional district, centered in San Francisco, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the 2026 general election.** Voter registration shows roughly 64% Democratic and only 7% Republican identifiers, and the seat has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 60 points in recent cycles, including Nancy Pelosi’s 81% share in 2024. Her retirement opened the race, yet the June 2 top-two primary produced an all-Democratic November matchup between state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan, eliminating any realistic Republican path under California’s electoral rules. **Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s structural tilt and absence of competitive opposition.** The low 3.4% Republican probability reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain remote and would require either a fundamental realignment in local voting patterns or an unforeseen disruption capable of elevating a Republican contender, neither of which has materialized in the current cycle.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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