California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, maintains a strong Democratic registration and voting edge that has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after the 2024 election opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican candidates combined for under 7 percent of the vote. Forecasters rate the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, and prediction markets reflect trader consensus around this structural advantage. A Republican victory would require unprecedented turnout collapse among Democratic voters or a late-breaking development of exceptional scale capable of overcoming the district's baseline partisan composition.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$21,773 交易量
$21,773 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
98%
共和党
1%
$21,773 交易量
$21,773 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,980 交易量
98%
共和党
$6,793 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, maintains a strong Democratic registration and voting edge that has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after the 2024 election opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican candidates combined for under 7 percent of the vote. Forecasters rate the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, and prediction markets reflect trader consensus around this structural advantage. A Republican victory would require unprecedented turnout collapse among Democratic voters or a late-breaking development of exceptional scale capable of overcoming the district's baseline partisan composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$21,773结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, maintains a strong Democratic registration and voting edge that has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after the 2024 election opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican candidates combined for under 7 percent of the vote. Forecasters rate the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, and prediction markets reflect trader consensus around this structural advantage. A Republican victory would require unprecedented turnout collapse among Democratic voters or a late-breaking development of exceptional scale capable of overcoming the district's baseline partisan composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$21,773结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETCalifornia's 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, maintains a strong Democratic registration and voting edge that has produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after the 2024 election opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican candidates combined for under 7 percent of the vote. Forecasters rate the November general election as safe or solid Democratic, and prediction markets reflect trader consensus around this structural advantage. A Republican victory would require unprecedented turnout collapse among Democratic voters or a late-breaking development of exceptional scale capable of overcoming the district's baseline partisan composition.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题