The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 11th congressional district advanced only Democratic candidates Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, with no Republican receiving meaningful support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s longstanding partisan composition and voter registration advantage in the San Francisco Bay Area. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the race but has not altered its fundamental tilt, as both general election contenders are Democrats and historical margins for the party have exceeded 60 points in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 98% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors and the absence of a viable Republican path. A late independent or write-in surge, major scandal, or unexpected turnout shift could theoretically narrow the outcome, though such developments remain rare in this environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
98%
共和党
2%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$5,927 交易量
98%
共和党
$2,143 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 11th congressional district advanced only Democratic candidates Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, with no Republican receiving meaningful support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s longstanding partisan composition and voter registration advantage in the San Francisco Bay Area. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the race but has not altered its fundamental tilt, as both general election contenders are Democrats and historical margins for the party have exceeded 60 points in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 98% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors and the absence of a viable Republican path. A late independent or write-in surge, major scandal, or unexpected turnout shift could theoretically narrow the outcome, though such developments remain rare in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$8,070结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 11th congressional district advanced only Democratic candidates Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, with no Republican receiving meaningful support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s longstanding partisan composition and voter registration advantage in the San Francisco Bay Area. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the race but has not altered its fundamental tilt, as both general election contenders are Democrats and historical margins for the party have exceeded 60 points in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 98% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors and the absence of a viable Republican path. A late independent or write-in surge, major scandal, or unexpected turnout shift could theoretically narrow the outcome, though such developments remain rare in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,070结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 11th congressional district advanced only Democratic candidates Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, with no Republican receiving meaningful support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s longstanding partisan composition and voter registration advantage in the San Francisco Bay Area. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the race but has not altered its fundamental tilt, as both general election contenders are Democrats and historical margins for the party have exceeded 60 points in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 98% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors and the absence of a viable Republican path. A late independent or write-in surge, major scandal, or unexpected turnout shift could theoretically narrow the outcome, though such developments remain rare in this environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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