The heavily Democratic composition of California's 11th congressional district, with roughly 64% registered Democrats and only 7% Republicans, underpins the 96.8% market price on a Democratic winner. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after nearly four decades created an open seat, but the June 2, 2026, top-two primary advanced only two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican candidates received minimal support and failed to advance. This intra-party November matchup leaves negligible path for a Republican victory. Traders reflect this structural reality in the consensus odds. A Democratic nominee could still lose in theory through an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or unprecedented turnout reversal, though such outcomes lack precedent in this district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,350 交易量
$10,350 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
97%
共和党
3%
$10,350 交易量
$10,350 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,443 交易量
97%
共和党
$3,907 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 11th congressional district, with roughly 64% registered Democrats and only 7% Republicans, underpins the 96.8% market price on a Democratic winner. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after nearly four decades created an open seat, but the June 2, 2026, top-two primary advanced only two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican candidates received minimal support and failed to advance. This intra-party November matchup leaves negligible path for a Republican victory. Traders reflect this structural reality in the consensus odds. A Democratic nominee could still lose in theory through an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or unprecedented turnout reversal, though such outcomes lack precedent in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$10,350结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 11th congressional district, with roughly 64% registered Democrats and only 7% Republicans, underpins the 96.8% market price on a Democratic winner. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after nearly four decades created an open seat, but the June 2, 2026, top-two primary advanced only two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican candidates received minimal support and failed to advance. This intra-party November matchup leaves negligible path for a Republican victory. Traders reflect this structural reality in the consensus odds. A Democratic nominee could still lose in theory through an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or unprecedented turnout reversal, though such outcomes lack precedent in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$10,350结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic composition of California's 11th congressional district, with roughly 64% registered Democrats and only 7% Republicans, underpins the 96.8% market price on a Democratic winner. Nancy Pelosi's retirement after nearly four decades created an open seat, but the June 2, 2026, top-two primary advanced only two Democrats—state Senator Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan—while Republican candidates received minimal support and failed to advance. This intra-party November matchup leaves negligible path for a Republican victory. Traders reflect this structural reality in the consensus odds. A Democratic nominee could still lose in theory through an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or unprecedented turnout reversal, though such outcomes lack precedent in this district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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