The June 2 top-two primary in California's 12th congressional district produced a general election matchup between two Democratic candidates after incumbent Lateefah Simon captured roughly 81 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Jamie Joyce, while no Republican cleared the threshold. This outcome in a district with consistent Democratic majorities has driven trader consensus toward a Democratic winner at 94.5 percent, reflecting the structural barrier for any Republican path in November. Historical patterns of California House races in similar urban and suburban districts reinforce the low 4 percent implied probability for a Republican upset. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout remain the primary factors that could still shift the result before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$40,930 交易量
$40,930 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$40,930 交易量
$40,930 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$24,042 交易量
95%
共和党
$16,887 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2 top-two primary in California's 12th congressional district produced a general election matchup between two Democratic candidates after incumbent Lateefah Simon captured roughly 81 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Jamie Joyce, while no Republican cleared the threshold. This outcome in a district with consistent Democratic majorities has driven trader consensus toward a Democratic winner at 94.5 percent, reflecting the structural barrier for any Republican path in November. Historical patterns of California House races in similar urban and suburban districts reinforce the low 4 percent implied probability for a Republican upset. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout remain the primary factors that could still shift the result before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$40,930结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2 top-two primary in California's 12th congressional district produced a general election matchup between two Democratic candidates after incumbent Lateefah Simon captured roughly 81 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Jamie Joyce, while no Republican cleared the threshold. This outcome in a district with consistent Democratic majorities has driven trader consensus toward a Democratic winner at 94.5 percent, reflecting the structural barrier for any Republican path in November. Historical patterns of California House races in similar urban and suburban districts reinforce the low 4 percent implied probability for a Republican upset. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout remain the primary factors that could still shift the result before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$40,930结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The June 2 top-two primary in California's 12th congressional district produced a general election matchup between two Democratic candidates after incumbent Lateefah Simon captured roughly 81 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Jamie Joyce, while no Republican cleared the threshold. This outcome in a district with consistent Democratic majorities has driven trader consensus toward a Democratic winner at 94.5 percent, reflecting the structural barrier for any Republican path in November. Historical patterns of California House races in similar urban and suburban districts reinforce the low 4 percent implied probability for a Republican upset. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout remain the primary factors that could still shift the result before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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