The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, combined with June 2 primary results that advanced two Democratic candidates to the November general election, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured the top spot in the top-two primary over challenger Jamie Joyce, while Republican participation remained negligible. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented upset or major unforeseen development, such as a candidate withdrawal or significant shift in voter turnout dynamics before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$40,930 交易量
$40,930 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$40,930 交易量
$40,930 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$24,042 交易量
95%
共和党
$16,887 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, combined with June 2 primary results that advanced two Democratic candidates to the November general election, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured the top spot in the top-two primary over challenger Jamie Joyce, while Republican participation remained negligible. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented upset or major unforeseen development, such as a candidate withdrawal or significant shift in voter turnout dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$40,930结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, combined with June 2 primary results that advanced two Democratic candidates to the November general election, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured the top spot in the top-two primary over challenger Jamie Joyce, while Republican participation remained negligible. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented upset or major unforeseen development, such as a candidate withdrawal or significant shift in voter turnout dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$40,930结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, combined with June 2 primary results that advanced two Democratic candidates to the November general election, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Incumbent Lateefah Simon secured the top spot in the top-two primary over challenger Jamie Joyce, while Republican participation remained negligible. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented upset or major unforeseen development, such as a candidate withdrawal or significant shift in voter turnout dynamics before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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