California’s 12th congressional district encompasses strongly Democratic areas of the East Bay, including parts of Oakland, Berkeley, and Alameda County, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 60 percent and recent House races have produced Democratic margins above 65 percent. Incumbent Lateefah Simon (D) and Jamie Joyce (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November 3 general election, locking in a Democratic outcome under the state’s primary rules. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty and the absence of any viable Republican path. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic candidates withdrawing or a fundamental realignment in district voting patterns not observed in decades.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$40,929 交易量
$40,929 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$40,929 交易量
$40,929 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$24,042 交易量
95%
共和党
$16,887 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 12th congressional district encompasses strongly Democratic areas of the East Bay, including parts of Oakland, Berkeley, and Alameda County, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 60 percent and recent House races have produced Democratic margins above 65 percent. Incumbent Lateefah Simon (D) and Jamie Joyce (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November 3 general election, locking in a Democratic outcome under the state’s primary rules. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty and the absence of any viable Republican path. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic candidates withdrawing or a fundamental realignment in district voting patterns not observed in decades.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$40,929结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 12th congressional district encompasses strongly Democratic areas of the East Bay, including parts of Oakland, Berkeley, and Alameda County, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 60 percent and recent House races have produced Democratic margins above 65 percent. Incumbent Lateefah Simon (D) and Jamie Joyce (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November 3 general election, locking in a Democratic outcome under the state’s primary rules. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty and the absence of any viable Republican path. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic candidates withdrawing or a fundamental realignment in district voting patterns not observed in decades.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$40,929结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 12th congressional district encompasses strongly Democratic areas of the East Bay, including parts of Oakland, Berkeley, and Alameda County, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 60 percent and recent House races have produced Democratic margins above 65 percent. Incumbent Lateefah Simon (D) and Jamie Joyce (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November 3 general election, locking in a Democratic outcome under the state’s primary rules. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty and the absence of any viable Republican path. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic candidates withdrawing or a fundamental realignment in district voting patterns not observed in decades.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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