Redistricting after the 2024 cycle shifted California's 6th Congressional District into Democratic-leaning territory, with a partisan voting index favoring the party by several points and prompting incumbent Ami Bera to relocate his campaign. Kevin Kiley, the former Republican representative, switched to independent status and entered the June 2 primary, where recent polling places him first but leaves multiple Democrats competing for the second advance spot under California's top-two system. Ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and historical margins. The trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic general election winner on November 3 aligns with these structural factors. A Republican or independent victory would require substantial shifts in turnout or candidate positioning that have not materialized in available data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$14,058 交易量
$14,058 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
5%
$14,058 交易量
$14,058 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,621 交易量
92%
共和党
$7,437 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting after the 2024 cycle shifted California's 6th Congressional District into Democratic-leaning territory, with a partisan voting index favoring the party by several points and prompting incumbent Ami Bera to relocate his campaign. Kevin Kiley, the former Republican representative, switched to independent status and entered the June 2 primary, where recent polling places him first but leaves multiple Democrats competing for the second advance spot under California's top-two system. Ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and historical margins. The trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic general election winner on November 3 aligns with these structural factors. A Republican or independent victory would require substantial shifts in turnout or candidate positioning that have not materialized in available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$14,058结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting after the 2024 cycle shifted California's 6th Congressional District into Democratic-leaning territory, with a partisan voting index favoring the party by several points and prompting incumbent Ami Bera to relocate his campaign. Kevin Kiley, the former Republican representative, switched to independent status and entered the June 2 primary, where recent polling places him first but leaves multiple Democrats competing for the second advance spot under California's top-two system. Ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and historical margins. The trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic general election winner on November 3 aligns with these structural factors. A Republican or independent victory would require substantial shifts in turnout or candidate positioning that have not materialized in available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$14,058结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting after the 2024 cycle shifted California's 6th Congressional District into Democratic-leaning territory, with a partisan voting index favoring the party by several points and prompting incumbent Ami Bera to relocate his campaign. Kevin Kiley, the former Republican representative, switched to independent status and entered the June 2 primary, where recent polling places him first but leaves multiple Democrats competing for the second advance spot under California's top-two system. Ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and historical margins. The trader consensus at 91.5% for a Democratic general election winner on November 3 aligns with these structural factors. A Republican or independent victory would require substantial shifts in turnout or candidate positioning that have not materialized in available data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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