Republican incumbent Tom McClintock holds a strong position in California's 5th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The seat's established Republican lean in the Central Valley and Sierra foothills, combined with McClintock's long tenure since 2009 and comfortable primary performance, anchors trader consensus around an 82% probability for the Republican Party. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting consistent historical voting patterns and limited redistricting impact. The Democratic nominee, Michael Masuda, faces structural barriers typical in this district, with the 17% probability accounting for potential national midterm shifts or turnout variations that could influence the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
83%
民主党
17%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$3,895 交易量
83%
民主党
$1,496 交易量
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Tom McClintock holds a strong position in California's 5th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The seat's established Republican lean in the Central Valley and Sierra foothills, combined with McClintock's long tenure since 2009 and comfortable primary performance, anchors trader consensus around an 82% probability for the Republican Party. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting consistent historical voting patterns and limited redistricting impact. The Democratic nominee, Michael Masuda, faces structural barriers typical in this district, with the 17% probability accounting for potential national midterm shifts or turnout variations that could influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$5,391结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Tom McClintock holds a strong position in California's 5th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The seat's established Republican lean in the Central Valley and Sierra foothills, combined with McClintock's long tenure since 2009 and comfortable primary performance, anchors trader consensus around an 82% probability for the Republican Party. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting consistent historical voting patterns and limited redistricting impact. The Democratic nominee, Michael Masuda, faces structural barriers typical in this district, with the 17% probability accounting for potential national midterm shifts or turnout variations that could influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,391结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Tom McClintock holds a strong position in California's 5th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The seat's established Republican lean in the Central Valley and Sierra foothills, combined with McClintock's long tenure since 2009 and comfortable primary performance, anchors trader consensus around an 82% probability for the Republican Party. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Republican, reflecting consistent historical voting patterns and limited redistricting impact. The Democratic nominee, Michael Masuda, faces structural barriers typical in this district, with the 17% probability accounting for potential national midterm shifts or turnout variations that could influence the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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