Tom McClintock’s commanding position in California’s 5th Congressional District reflects the seat’s consistent Republican lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and repeated “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. The longtime incumbent advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 61 percent, far ahead of Democratic challenger Michael Masuda at 24 percent, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge. The district’s rural and foothill counties have delivered reliable Republican margins in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited, though an unforeseen national shift, candidate health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout on issues such as wildfire management or local economic pressures could theoretically alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,399 交易量
$15,399 交易量
2026-11-02
汤姆·麦克林托克（共和党）
94%
迈克尔·增田（民主党）
6%
$15,399 交易量
$15,399 交易量
2026-11-02
汤姆·麦克林托克（共和党）
$6,905 交易量
94%
迈克尔·增田（民主党）
$8,494 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tom McClintock’s commanding position in California’s 5th Congressional District reflects the seat’s consistent Republican lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and repeated “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. The longtime incumbent advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 61 percent, far ahead of Democratic challenger Michael Masuda at 24 percent, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge. The district’s rural and foothill counties have delivered reliable Republican margins in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited, though an unforeseen national shift, candidate health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout on issues such as wildfire management or local economic pressures could theoretically alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$15,399结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tom McClintock’s commanding position in California’s 5th Congressional District reflects the seat’s consistent Republican lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and repeated “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. The longtime incumbent advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 61 percent, far ahead of Democratic challenger Michael Masuda at 24 percent, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge. The district’s rural and foothill counties have delivered reliable Republican margins in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited, though an unforeseen national shift, candidate health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout on issues such as wildfire management or local economic pressures could theoretically alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,399结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETTom McClintock’s commanding position in California’s 5th Congressional District reflects the seat’s consistent Republican lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and repeated “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters. The longtime incumbent advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 61 percent, far ahead of Democratic challenger Michael Masuda at 24 percent, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge. The district’s rural and foothill counties have delivered reliable Republican margins in recent cycles. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited, though an unforeseen national shift, candidate health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout on issues such as wildfire management or local economic pressures could theoretically alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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