Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district ahead of the August primaries and November general election, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward the Republican nominee. The district’s rural and suburban makeup, combined with its consistent strong Republican performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus. Alford faces primary challengers but maintains broad party support as the sitting representative. Democratic candidates remain divided in their primary with limited visibility in this conservative-leaning area. A major scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually unified Democratic effort could narrow the gap, though structural factors and historical margins make such shifts unlikely before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,928 交易量
$34,928 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$34,928 交易量
$34,928 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$20,778 交易量
93%
民主党
$14,150 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district ahead of the August primaries and November general election, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward the Republican nominee. The district’s rural and suburban makeup, combined with its consistent strong Republican performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus. Alford faces primary challengers but maintains broad party support as the sitting representative. Democratic candidates remain divided in their primary with limited visibility in this conservative-leaning area. A major scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually unified Democratic effort could narrow the gap, though structural factors and historical margins make such shifts unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$34,928结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district ahead of the August primaries and November general election, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward the Republican nominee. The district’s rural and suburban makeup, combined with its consistent strong Republican performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus. Alford faces primary challengers but maintains broad party support as the sitting representative. Democratic candidates remain divided in their primary with limited visibility in this conservative-leaning area. A major scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually unified Democratic effort could narrow the gap, though structural factors and historical margins make such shifts unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,928结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district ahead of the August primaries and November general election, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward the Republican nominee. The district’s rural and suburban makeup, combined with its consistent strong Republican performance in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus. Alford faces primary challengers but maintains broad party support as the sitting representative. Democratic candidates remain divided in their primary with limited visibility in this conservative-leaning area. A major scandal involving the incumbent or an unusually unified Democratic effort could narrow the gap, though structural factors and historical margins make such shifts unlikely before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题