Missouri’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat following the state legislature’s redistricting and subsequent court approval of the new maps. Incumbent Mark Alford holds the Republican nomination against limited primary opposition ahead of the August 4 vote, while Democratic primary contenders face the same structural headwinds in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+21. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 92.5% implied probability because the district’s voter base, historical margins, and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure have produced consistent double-digit Republican advantages in recent cycles. A late Republican primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow the gap, yet no such developments have materialized to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,928 交易量
$34,928 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$34,928 交易量
$34,928 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$20,778 交易量
93%
民主党
$14,150 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat following the state legislature’s redistricting and subsequent court approval of the new maps. Incumbent Mark Alford holds the Republican nomination against limited primary opposition ahead of the August 4 vote, while Democratic primary contenders face the same structural headwinds in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+21. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 92.5% implied probability because the district’s voter base, historical margins, and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure have produced consistent double-digit Republican advantages in recent cycles. A late Republican primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow the gap, yet no such developments have materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$34,928结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat following the state legislature’s redistricting and subsequent court approval of the new maps. Incumbent Mark Alford holds the Republican nomination against limited primary opposition ahead of the August 4 vote, while Democratic primary contenders face the same structural headwinds in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+21. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 92.5% implied probability because the district’s voter base, historical margins, and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure have produced consistent double-digit Republican advantages in recent cycles. A late Republican primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow the gap, yet no such developments have materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,928结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat following the state legislature’s redistricting and subsequent court approval of the new maps. Incumbent Mark Alford holds the Republican nomination against limited primary opposition ahead of the August 4 vote, while Democratic primary contenders face the same structural headwinds in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+21. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 92.5% implied probability because the district’s voter base, historical margins, and absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure have produced consistent double-digit Republican advantages in recent cycles. A late Republican primary upset or unforeseen national wave could narrow the gap, yet no such developments have materialized to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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