Missouri’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s consistent partisan voting index, rural and suburban voter base, and incumbent Mark Alford’s 2024 general election margin exceeding 70 percent. Alford faces limited primary opposition in the August 4 contest but holds clear advantages in name recognition and fundraising. Multiple Democratic candidates have filed, yet none have demonstrated the resources or crossover appeal needed to threaten the outcome in November. Redistricting upheld by state courts preserved the seat’s Republican tilt without significant boundary shifts. A national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or unexpected primary result could narrow margins, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such shifts unlikely before the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,928 交易量
$34,928 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$34,928 交易量
$34,928 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$20,778 交易量
93%
民主党
$14,150 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s consistent partisan voting index, rural and suburban voter base, and incumbent Mark Alford’s 2024 general election margin exceeding 70 percent. Alford faces limited primary opposition in the August 4 contest but holds clear advantages in name recognition and fundraising. Multiple Democratic candidates have filed, yet none have demonstrated the resources or crossover appeal needed to threaten the outcome in November. Redistricting upheld by state courts preserved the seat’s Republican tilt without significant boundary shifts. A national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or unexpected primary result could narrow margins, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such shifts unlikely before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$34,928结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s consistent partisan voting index, rural and suburban voter base, and incumbent Mark Alford’s 2024 general election margin exceeding 70 percent. Alford faces limited primary opposition in the August 4 contest but holds clear advantages in name recognition and fundraising. Multiple Democratic candidates have filed, yet none have demonstrated the resources or crossover appeal needed to threaten the outcome in November. Redistricting upheld by state courts preserved the seat’s Republican tilt without significant boundary shifts. A national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or unexpected primary result could narrow margins, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such shifts unlikely before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,928结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with trader consensus reflecting the district’s consistent partisan voting index, rural and suburban voter base, and incumbent Mark Alford’s 2024 general election margin exceeding 70 percent. Alford faces limited primary opposition in the August 4 contest but holds clear advantages in name recognition and fundraising. Multiple Democratic candidates have filed, yet none have demonstrated the resources or crossover appeal needed to threaten the outcome in November. Redistricting upheld by state courts preserved the seat’s Republican tilt without significant boundary shifts. A national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or unexpected primary result could narrow margins, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such shifts unlikely before the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题