Missouri’s 3rd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party an 89% implied probability of holding the seat in the November 2026 general election. The district’s voting history, rural and suburban composition, and consistent support for Republican candidates in recent cycles underpin the current consensus. Incumbent Bob Onder faces an August 5 primary challenge from John Fraser, while Democratic contenders including Tommy Holstein seek the nomination; one Democratic candidate has already suspended a bid. These primary contests introduce limited uncertainty but have not shifted broader expectations, as the winner of the Republican primary is viewed as the heavy favorite in the general election. No late-cycle polling or major endorsements have emerged to alter positioning ahead of the August primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$14,160 交易量
$14,160 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
89%
民主党
11%
$14,160 交易量
$14,160 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$5,321 交易量
89%
民主党
$8,839 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 3rd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party an 89% implied probability of holding the seat in the November 2026 general election. The district’s voting history, rural and suburban composition, and consistent support for Republican candidates in recent cycles underpin the current consensus. Incumbent Bob Onder faces an August 5 primary challenge from John Fraser, while Democratic contenders including Tommy Holstein seek the nomination; one Democratic candidate has already suspended a bid. These primary contests introduce limited uncertainty but have not shifted broader expectations, as the winner of the Republican primary is viewed as the heavy favorite in the general election. No late-cycle polling or major endorsements have emerged to alter positioning ahead of the August primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$14,160结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 3rd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party an 89% implied probability of holding the seat in the November 2026 general election. The district’s voting history, rural and suburban composition, and consistent support for Republican candidates in recent cycles underpin the current consensus. Incumbent Bob Onder faces an August 5 primary challenge from John Fraser, while Democratic contenders including Tommy Holstein seek the nomination; one Democratic candidate has already suspended a bid. These primary contests introduce limited uncertainty but have not shifted broader expectations, as the winner of the Republican primary is viewed as the heavy favorite in the general election. No late-cycle polling or major endorsements have emerged to alter positioning ahead of the August primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$14,160结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 3rd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party an 89% implied probability of holding the seat in the November 2026 general election. The district’s voting history, rural and suburban composition, and consistent support for Republican candidates in recent cycles underpin the current consensus. Incumbent Bob Onder faces an August 5 primary challenge from John Fraser, while Democratic contenders including Tommy Holstein seek the nomination; one Democratic candidate has already suspended a bid. These primary contests introduce limited uncertainty but have not shifted broader expectations, as the winner of the Republican primary is viewed as the heavy favorite in the general election. No late-cycle polling or major endorsements have emerged to alter positioning ahead of the August primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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