Republican incumbent Troy Balderson holds a commanding position in Ohio's 12th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican Party. The seat's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the state's recent redistricting, combined with Balderson's multiple prior victories and the Democratic nominee's limited visibility and fundraising, anchors trader sentiment. Primary results in May further confirmed limited intra-party challenges on the Republican side. A realistic shift would require a major national political realignment, a significant scandal or health event involving the incumbent, or an unexpectedly strong Democratic performance in battleground turnout metrics that overrides the district's structural baseline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$33,932 交易量
$33,932 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$33,932 交易量
$33,932 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$24,097 交易量
94%
民主党
$9,834 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Troy Balderson holds a commanding position in Ohio's 12th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican Party. The seat's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the state's recent redistricting, combined with Balderson's multiple prior victories and the Democratic nominee's limited visibility and fundraising, anchors trader sentiment. Primary results in May further confirmed limited intra-party challenges on the Republican side. A realistic shift would require a major national political realignment, a significant scandal or health event involving the incumbent, or an unexpectedly strong Democratic performance in battleground turnout metrics that overrides the district's structural baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$33,932结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Troy Balderson holds a commanding position in Ohio's 12th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican Party. The seat's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the state's recent redistricting, combined with Balderson's multiple prior victories and the Democratic nominee's limited visibility and fundraising, anchors trader sentiment. Primary results in May further confirmed limited intra-party challenges on the Republican side. A realistic shift would require a major national political realignment, a significant scandal or health event involving the incumbent, or an unexpectedly strong Democratic performance in battleground turnout metrics that overrides the district's structural baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,932结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Troy Balderson holds a commanding position in Ohio's 12th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the 93.5% implied probability for the Republican Party. The seat's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the state's recent redistricting, combined with Balderson's multiple prior victories and the Democratic nominee's limited visibility and fundraising, anchors trader sentiment. Primary results in May further confirmed limited intra-party challenges on the Republican side. A realistic shift would require a major national political realignment, a significant scandal or health event involving the incumbent, or an unexpectedly strong Democratic performance in battleground turnout metrics that overrides the district's structural baseline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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