Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary with 62.3% of the vote against challenger Kai Newkirk and now faces Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in Arizona's 4th congressional district, which includes suburban areas around Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its partisan voting index and Stanton's 2024 reelection margin. This positioning drives the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include a broad national shift favoring Republicans, unusually high turnout among opposition voters, or late-breaking events affecting candidate viability before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$32,234 交易量
$32,234 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$32,234 交易量
$32,234 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$25,395 交易量
93%
共和党
$6,839 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary with 62.3% of the vote against challenger Kai Newkirk and now faces Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in Arizona's 4th congressional district, which includes suburban areas around Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its partisan voting index and Stanton's 2024 reelection margin. This positioning drives the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include a broad national shift favoring Republicans, unusually high turnout among opposition voters, or late-breaking events affecting candidate viability before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$32,234结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary with 62.3% of the vote against challenger Kai Newkirk and now faces Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in Arizona's 4th congressional district, which includes suburban areas around Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its partisan voting index and Stanton's 2024 reelection margin. This positioning drives the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include a broad national shift favoring Republicans, unusually high turnout among opposition voters, or late-breaking events affecting candidate viability before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,234结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton secured his party's nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary with 62.3% of the vote against challenger Kai Newkirk and now faces Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in Arizona's 4th congressional district, which includes suburban areas around Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its partisan voting index and Stanton's 2024 reelection margin. This positioning drives the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include a broad national shift favoring Republicans, unusually high turnout among opposition voters, or late-breaking events affecting candidate viability before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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